Day: November 23, 2023

In front of a house on the Be’eri kibbutz, Israel, where more than a hundred residents were killed on October 7, 2023, by Hamas men, October 13, 2023. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR LE MONDE

The attack by Hamas against Israel on October 7 did not just stun the public. Leaders in countries near Israel realized how little they knew about what was going on in the Gaza Strip, the point of departure for the terrorist commandos. And the element of surprise was so great and so destabilizing for the Western camp, also confronted with Islamist threats on its own soil, that the United States felt it was necessary to explain this major security failure to its main European allies.

Le Monde was able to collect, from sources who requested anonymity, part of the account given by Washington to its British, French and German partners. It highlights the limitations of Israeli and American intelligence on Hamas and the overemphasis on technological surveillance. It also attests to the fact that Hamas itself never imagined that its operation could reach such proportions. Finally, it repudiates the existence of any co-organization of the October 7 offensive with Iran and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

The American debriefing stressed, first and foremost, that the political wing of Hamas, whose leaders are based in Gaza but also abroad, notably in Qatar, was “kept out of the preparation of the armed attack.” Only the military branch was involved. However, the Americans pointed out that while Shin Beth and Mossad, Israel’s internal and external intelligence services, have human sources within the radical movement, they are essentially linked to its political wing.

Oblivious Israeli security

The Israeli security apparatus therefore remained oblivious to the activities of Hamas’s military wing. This US analysis of the events of October 7 did not, however, rule out the possibility that certain members of the political wing of Hamas, particularly in Gaza, may have been informed in advance on an individual basis. It simply suggested that the Israeli intelligence services did not have any informers among those individuals, and that any members of the Islamist movement whose interceptions could have been intercepted escaped the nets of Shin Beth. The strict separation between the political and military branches of Hamas is one of the keys to understanding an operation that slipped under the radar.

The strength of Israel’s technological surveillance, which is greatly supported by the US, also showed its flaws. According to the data passed on to the Europeans, even the powerful American surveillance tools aimed at the Gaza Strip, a 40-kilometer-long stretch of territory with a maximum width of 12 kilometers, were unable to pick up early warning signals that the attack was being prepared. The military wing of Hamas has long resorted to rudimentary but effective means of communication, thwarting the most modern interception techniques.

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The Kremlin aims to exploit Hamas’ attack on Israel to divert Western support and attention away from Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its daily assessment on Oct. 7.

Following Hamas’ large-scale attacks on Israeli territory on Oct. 7, Russian voices amplified messages blaming Western countries for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine.

In a statement posted on the social media platform X, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the U.S. and Western allies should have been focused on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than providing Ukraine with military aid.

As part of these information operations, pro-Russian military bloggers have also largely focused on the Hamas attacks in Israel, actively promoting Kremlin narratives.

According to ISW, Russian narratives surrounding the Hamas attacks are aimed at influencing Western audiences. Their objectives include driving a wedge in military support for Ukraine and attempting to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose support from Western allies.

Earlier this week, Russia launched its single deadliest attack against Ukrainian civilians this year, killing 52 people and earning international condemnation.

Read also: ‘Every family affected’: Devastated village copes with aftermath of Russian strike on funeral

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LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin waited three days before commenting on Hamas’ massacre of Israelis, which happened to take place on his 71st birthday. When he did, he blamed the United States, not Hamas.

“I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the failed policy in the Middle East of the United States, which tried to monopolise the settlement process,” Putin told Iraq’s prime minister.

It was a further six days before Putin spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to offer his condolences over the killing of around 1,200 Israelis. Ten days after that, Russia said a Hamas delegation was in Moscow for talks.

Putin, say Russian and Western policy experts, is trying to use Israel’s war against Hamas to escalate what he has cast as an existential battle with the West for a new world order that would end U.S. dominance in favour of a multilateral system he believes is already taking shape.

“Russia understands that the U.S. and the EU have fully supported Israel, but the U.S. and the EU are now the embodiment of evil and cannot be right in any way,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, wrote in his blog, explaining Putin’s need to differentiate himself.

“Therefore, Russia will not be in the same camp with the U.S. and the EU. Israel’s main ally is the United States, Russia’s main enemy right now. And Hamas’ ally is Iran, an ally of Russia.”

Moscow enjoys an increasingly close relationship with Tehran – which backs Hamas and whom Washington has accused of supplying Moscow with drones for Ukraine which is locked in a grinding war of attrition with Russia.

Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based Russian foreign policy expert, told the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center she thought Moscow had dropped its earlier, more balanced position on the Middle East and adopted “quite an overt pro-Palestinian position”.

“In doing all of this, Russia understands very well that it aligns itself with constituencies across the Middle East and even beyond – in the Global South, in their views on the Palestinian issue where the Palestinian cause continues to resonate,” she said.

It is precisely those constituencies which Putin is seeking to win over in his drive for a new world order that would dilute U.S. influence.

“The most important way in which Russia stands to benefit from this crisis in Gaza is by scoring points in the court of global public opinion,” said Notte.

Putin has said that “when you look at the suffering and bloodied children (in Gaza), you clench your fists and tears come to your eyes.”

‘DOUBLE STANDARDS’

Russian politicians have pointedly contrasted what they say is the carte blanche that Washington has given Israel to bomb Gaza to Washington’s punitive response to Russia’s own war in Ukraine, where Moscow says it does not deliberately target civilians even though thousands of civilians have been killed.

Israel’s U.N. ambassador has said Russia is in no position to lecture others given what it has been doing itself in Ukraine.

But Senator Alexei Pushkov said the West had fallen into a trap of its own making by exposing its own double standards over how it treated different countries depending on its self-interested political preferences.

“The unequivocal support of the United States and the West for Israel’s actions has dealt a powerful blow to Western foreign policy in the eyes of the Arab world and the entire Global South,” Pushkov wrote on Telegram.

Russia also sees the crisis as a chance for Moscow to try to grow its clout in the Middle East by casting itself as a potential peacemaker with links to all sides, said former Kremlin adviser Markov.

Moscow has offered to host a regional meeting of foreign ministers and Putin has said that Russia is well placed to help.

“We have very stable, businesslike relations with Israel, we have had friendly relations with Palestine for decades, our friends know this. And Russia, in my opinion, could also make its own contribution to the settlement process,” Putin told an Arab TV channel in October.

There are potential economic benefits too, said Markov, and the added bonus of drawing Western financial and military resources away from Ukraine.

“Russia benefits from an increase in the price of oil which will result from this war,” said Markov. “(And) Russia benefits from any conflict that the U.S. and EU have to devote resources to because it reduces resources for the anti-Russian regime in Ukraine.”

Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said he believed Moscow had tilted its Middle East policy because of the war in Ukraine.

“My explanation is it’s because the war is becoming the organising principle of Russian foreign policy and (because of) ties with Iran, which brings military materiel to the table. The central Russian war effort is more important than, for example, the relationship with Israel.”

WORSENING TIES

Russia’s ties with Israel, traditionally close and pragmatic, have suffered.

Moscow’s reception of a Hamas delegation less than two weeks after the Oct. 7 massacre angered Israel, prompting it to summon Russia’s ambassador, Anatoly Viktorov, for sending “a message legitimising terrorism”.

The discontent was mutual; Alexander Ben Zvi, Israel’s ambassador, has been summoned for talks with the Russian foreign ministry at least twice and the two countries’ U.N. envoys have traded harsh words after Moscow’s representative questioned the scope of Israel’s right to defend itself.

Mikhail Bogdanov, one of Russia’s deputy foreign ministers, has said that Israel has stopped routinely warning Moscow of air strikes against Russian ally Syria in advance.

When a since-suspended Israeli junior minister appeared to express openness to the idea of Israel carrying out a nuclear strike on Gaza, Russia said the remarks raised “a huge number of questions” and queried whether it amounted to an official admission from Israel that it had nuclear weapons.

Amir Weitmann, chairman of the libertarian caucus in Netanyahu’s Likud party, has said Israel will one day punish Moscow for its position.

“We’re going to finish this war (with Hamas) … After this, Russia will pay the price,” Weitmann said in a stormy October interview with Russian state broadcaster RT.

“Russia is supporting the enemies of Israel. Afterwards we’re not forgetting what you are doing. We will come, we will make sure that Ukraine wins,” he said.

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As Russia Chief Political Correspondent, and former Moscow bureau chief, Andrew helps lead coverage of the world’s largest country, whose political, economic and social transformation under President Vladimir Putin he has reported on for much of the last two decades, along with its growing confrontation with the West and wars in Georgia and Ukraine. Andrew was part of a Wall Street Journal reporting team short-listed for a Pulitzer Prize for international reporting. He has also reported from Moscow for two British newspapers, The Telegraph and The Independent.