The Israel-Gaza and Ukraine-Russia conflicts are the result of a world war started in 1999 by Vladimir Putin to recreate the Soviet Union’s empire. Russia’s war machine operates in the shadows and is behind most of the world’s strife. It is not a goose-stepping monolith, but a hidden Hydra with thousands of tentacles that reach worldwide and have grown for decades. Putin prefers to wage hybrid warfare and deploys mercenaries, rogue nations, and non-state players such as terrorists or political extremists to foment unrest and revolts. He weaponizes food and fuel and sabotages economies, elections, reputations, and industries. Russian operatives corrupt nations; torture, poison, or bribe individuals; kidnap children; take hostages, and launch cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns on an industrial scale. Such tactics have culminated in the two major wars underway in Europe and the Middle East, and, despite ample evidence of Russia’s involvement, there is no global consensus that this is World War III and must be stopped. Instead, leaders haggle over next moves and whether to fund Ukraine as opposed to Israel, as though the same Evil wasn’t behind all conflicts. Only a global alliance will stop Russia’s war.
Russia’s Social Media Hate EcosystemIran-Russia grip on the Middle East. South European Council on Foreign Relations
Iran-Russia grip on the Middle East. South European Council on Foreign Relations
If you examine the current geopolitical problems through the prism of a world war orchestrated by another ruthless leader, there is no room for appeasement, neutrality, avoidance, nor for dreams that negotiations, ceasefires, or peace talks will stop the mayhem. Only eradication of Russia’s network, in all its guises, will win the peace. Russia’s nation-state allies are Iran and North Korea, but Moscow has also financed and trained thousands of non-state actors that are embedded everywhere to cause trouble. Hamas and Hezbollah are well-known terrorist guerrilla armies on the payroll of Russia and Iran, but so is a roster of anti-West countries, political parties, terrorist sleeper cells, movements, and leaders. Finally, there is Russia’s huge conventional army as well as the Wagner Group mercenaries that have played an over-sized role in destabilizing Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Venezuela. All must be defeated.
Instead, the world currently focuses on the killing fields of Israel and Ukraine, but should view them as tragedies that have happened because of the world’s strategic blindness to the existence of this insidious global war. The current Israeli situation, for instance, illustrates at least two mistakes: The failure by Israel and others to recognize and stop Putin’s behind-the-scenes maneuvres; and the reliance on conventional armed forces to provide security against elusive, hybrid warfare. The result was that on October 7 (Putin’s birthday) Hamas slaughtered 1,400 people despite Israel’s large military and Putin’s “friendship” with Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, in retaliation, Israel counter-attacked by conducting massive bombing raids and a ground invasion of Gaza to destroy Hamas as if it were a static nation-state and not a cunning mobile insurgency that had already “left town”.
By the time the tanks arrived, Hamas was gone or hiding behind Palestinian civilians as shields. Israel’s ferocious retaliation demolished half of Gaza, killed thousands of civilians, but eliminated only a few dozen terrorists. This outcome handed Russia and its global tentacles an opportunity to weaponize the air waves by amplifying the plight of Palestinian civilians at the hands of Israel. This has roiled world opinion and resulted in criticism of Israel even among its allies. Theoretically, if the world had realized what Putin was up to, an allied hybrid war capability might have detected and prevented the attack or, having failed to do so, could have conducted a surgical counterattack with fewer civilian casualties. But now the West and Israel have been undermined, American politicians divided, Arab and Muslim allies alienated, and the possibility of a two-state solution postponed indefinitely.
Russia’s Paths to Global Influence through Information, Military, Economic, Diplomatic channels. 2022.
Not surprisingly, Vladimir Putin granted a rare interview days later with Qatar-owned Al Jazeera where he expressed concern about the “catastrophic increase” in the number of civilians killed in Israel and the Gaza Strip. “The Russian leader also took aim at Washington’s policy in the Middle East which he said had failed by not taking the needs of Palestinians into account,” read the website.
The failure to take a global approach to Russia’s predations allows one ally to be pitted against another or to make a grave strategic error that damages all. Clearly, a unified alliance must create a hybrid war counter-offensive that can identify, track, anticipate, infiltrate, and destroy Russia, Iran and their malevolent non-state actors before they attack. The failure to muster a global force against Russia allows Putin to gain ground, geographically or politically, by dividing and conquering foes, isolating targets, and generating instability across the world.
Ukraine is another example of what happens when the civilized world fails to unite against Russia. In 2008, Putin invaded Georgia, then Ukraine in 2014 without much fuss by America, Europe, or others. The Obama regime opted to do a reset with Russia, a nonsensical strategy given the sociopathy of the Putin regime. That miscalculation, along with appeasements, led to the invasion of Ukraine on February 2022. But if the West had understood that Putin was salami-slicing the West on a quest to dominate Eastern Europe once more, other strategies would have been undertaken. For starters, Europe would have realized it could never become fully dependent on Russian oil and natural gas; NATO would have expanded into Scandinavia, Georgia, and Ukraine years ago, and the West would have invested billions in protecting the collective security, not forced to play catch up for the past 20 months.
Fresh from these two major triumphs, Russia will continue its “hybrid warfare” globally. It will fund any anti-American, anti-European Union, anti-Israel, or anti-NATO group, media, political party, and leader. Such efforts have already borne fruit. Putin’s tentacles have backed anti-European Union populists such as Marine LePen in France, Victor Orban in Hungary, Slovakian or Serbian politicians, Britain’s “Brexit” movement, white supremacists in America, and anti-Europe celebrities like Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and Tucker Carlson in America — whether they know it or not.
Russia has also weaponized migration into Europe and America to destabilize both politically and socially. As many as 20 million refugees have landed in Europe following Russian military interventions in Syria and Ukraine. Neither jurisdiction has secured its borders or properly screened entrants. (Read my “Global Refugee Mess” published on October 2.) If one agrees with my assertion that World War III is already underway, it’s hardly a stretch to speculate that included, among the tens of thousands of Venezuelan and Central American men who enter the United States, are spies, criminals, drug mules, or terrorists. In addition, thousands more arrive from further afield, including Russia. And Europe is in worse shape because it lacks a continental navy and is inundated with refugee claimants, most recently arriving by boat from the Middle East, or countries in Africa where Russian influence is powerful.
New York City, 140,000 unscreened migrants in weeks dumped into the city and sleeping on streets until housing is provided
China has stayed on the sidelines in this global war despite boasts by Putin about being “no limits friends”. Russia would love nothing better than to convince China to open a third theater in its world war by invading Taiwan. But this is a Kremlin distraction combined with wishful thinking. Since Ukraine’s invasion, China has distanced itself from Russia, and refused to provide military aid. Military conquest is not China’s style. Its foreign policy has been mercantilist, via its Belt and Road Initiative. Besides that, Beijing moves toward détente with the United States and Europe out of self-interest to shore up its exports and economy in future. And it too fears Russia, as it should. Russia, not China, initiated and backed the only post-war invasions in Asia — Korea and Vietnam. Both conflicts embroiled the United States for years as its alliance of conventional troops fought to stalemates against guerrilla armies.
Today Russia remains a global scourge and is winning its world war. This is why an alliance must stop and dismantle its deadly war machine.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Reprinted from [email protected] – Diane Francis on America and the World
See the original here.
Today, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met with Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the CIA, Mr. William Burns. The meeting was also attended by Director of the General Intelligence Service, Major General Abbas Kamel.
Spokesman for the Presidency, Counselor Ahmed Fahmy, said during the meeting the two sides underscored the robust strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States, and its pivotal role in maintaining security and stability in the Middle East. There was also an emphasis on the mutual commitment to strengthening and further advancing the solid cooperation between the two countries across an array of fields, particularly at the security and intelligence levels, with the aim of boosting efforts to restore stability in the region and address the various challenges in this regard.
The meeting also touched on a multitude of regional and international issues of mutual concern, particularly the Israeli military escalation in the Gaza Strip. President El-Sisi reiterated the determinants of the Egyptian stance in this regard, notably the imperative need for an immediate ceasefire to protect the civilians, and facilitating the unfettered flow of humanitarian aid. CIA Director, Mr. Burns, reaffirmed his commitment to continue close coordination with the Egyptian side to resolve the current crisis.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The Presidency, The Arab Republic of Egypt.
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The episode occurred in a suburb outside Los Angeles amid pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrations.
William J. Burns’s visit comes as the United States tries to prod Israel to pursue a more targeted approach to attacking Hamas, allow pauses in the fighting and do more to avoid civilian casualties.
The Israel-Gaza and Ukraine-Russia conflicts are linked — and are part of a world war started by Vladimir Putin in 1999 to restore the Soviet Union’s empire after becoming President of Russia.
This world war has not been recognized because it uses proxies, non-state actors like Hamas or other terrorist organizations, as well as extremist political groups. Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has also played a surreptitious role in destabilizing Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Russia is behind both wars — and most of the world’s strife — because no concerted effort has been mounted to stop Putin. Catastrophes and chaos are dealt with piecemeal. This is why American politicians argue about funding Ukraine as opposed to Israel, as though the same enemy wasn’t behind both conflicts. Only a global alliance ended World War II, and its allies never bickered about allocations to fight Germany as opposed to Japan.
Israel’s current predicament illustrates why the failure to realize Putin’s intentions can be fatal and damaging to the West as a whole. Israel’s leadership was on good terms with Putin, and lukewarm toward helping Ukraine fight Russia. It was also unaware that Russia was backing Hamas. The slaughter took place on October 7 and, on October 29, a Hamas spokesman admitted publicly, “Russia is our closest friend.”
After the massacre, Israel counterattacked Hamas with bombs and launched a ground invasion as though it was fighting a conventional war, when in fact most of the enemy had already left town. Thousands of civilians have been killed and only a few dozen Hamas operatives died. This outcome handed Russia an opportunity to weaponize the air waves by amplifying the plight of Palestinian civilians and criticizing Israel and the West.
Putin even gave an interview to Qatar-owned Al Jazeera where he expressed concern about the “catastrophic increase” in the number of civilians killed in Israel and Gaza. “The Russian leader also took aim at Washington’s policy in the Middle East, which he said had failed by not taking the needs of Palestinians into account,” read the site.
The failure to take a global approach to stop Russia also resulted in the Ukrainian war. For years, Putin coopted European politicians and “salami-sliced” Eastern Europe by partially invading Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. If the West had understood it was at war, Europe would not have become dependent on Russian energy, and NATO would have allowed Ukraine and Georgia to join.
Interestingly, China has not joined Russia’s global war. Russia would love China to open another front by invading Taiwan, but China has distanced itself from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, refusing to provide military aid.
Russia’s war also afflicts the United States and Europe because it includes weaponizing migration. As many as 20 million refugees have landed in Europe following Russian military interventions in Syria and Ukraine, and America is inundated with migrants from Russian-influenced Venezuela, Central America and Eastern Europe.
Obviously, Europe and America must secure their borders, but have not. This dereliction, in light of the Russian world war, raises the risk that among the tens of thousands of men who have migrated to the United States and Europe from all over the world, some could be spies, criminals, drug mules or terrorists. America’s southern border is a sieve and Europe is inundated with refugee claimants arriving by boat from the Middle East, or countries in Africa where Russian influence is powerful.
Russia has been conducting war for years and is winning. Only a global alliance, with hybrid war capability, can eradicate its network and end this world war.
Diane Francis is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington at its Eurasia Center. She is editor at large at National Post in Canada, a columnist with Kyiv Post, author of 10 books, and specializes in geopolitics, white-collar crime, technology and business. She writes a newsletter about America and geopolitics twice weekly on Substack.
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Israel, Iran, Ukraine and Russia are driving so much about geopolitics today.
RUSSIA’S INVASION of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a global security crisis. The assault on democracy by a morally sick imperial power in the heart of Europe has tilted the balance of power in other parts of the world, including the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. The failure of multilateral bodies such as the UN and Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe to maintain order means that Ukraine can only restore its territorial integrity by military force.
