Day: November 6, 2023
Fighting in Gaza between the Israeli army and the armed faction of Hamas is a textbook example of modern asymmetric warfare. Whenever fighting ends, it will be studied by strategists and tacticians.
The term “asymmetric warfare” has been used for less than 60 years, but the concept is much older. Originally it denoted a conflict between significantly disparate enemies, often simplistically portraying it as a David vs Goliath situation.
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Asymmetric wars are usually bloodier and more savage than those between regular armies: In a state versus non-state conflict, the latter’s fighters are not recognised as “proper” combatants and thus not considered protected by international conventions and laws of war.
The regular army will use weapons and tactics that might be legally unacceptable in a “proper war”. In a chicken-and-egg situation where it is usually impossible to say which side started with unacceptable practices, the rebels also commit acts that are blatantly illegal, often claiming to do it for not being recognised as equals.
Numerous wars, civil and other, in the last half-century or so, were asymmetric: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Sri Lanka, and Syria. In many cases, the underdogs triumphed, often not by winning decisive battles but by wearing out their enemies, but it does not mean the smaller party always wins.
Israeli soldiers take position in the Gaza Strip, November 4, 2023 [Handout via Reuters]
For the fighting in Gaza, the most relevant cases of asymmetrical warfare are the continued skirmishes of Hezbollah with the Israeli army and the war in Ukraine. Although both Ukraine and Russia are states, there are important elements of asymmetric warfare in Kyiv’s initial response to the aggression.
When it gained independence in 1991, Ukraine inherited an old Soviet Union-style army and it did little to change it. Until Russia attacked it by proxy in 2014 and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian leadership realised that to beat Russia it had to improve on tactics and strategy, so it decided to adopt NATO standards, believing them superior to Soviet-type practices.
But changing a big and inert system takes time (other armies, take note, Israel included) and the leadership realised that the first step in implementing the new doctrines was to allow tactical initiative and independence as the first step. That move, I dare say, saved Ukraine from being defeated in a matter of days, as Moscow almost certainly expected.
Free of interference from higher commands and orders to unify every move, the Ukrainian army, or to be more precise, its highly independent battalion-sized or smaller units, resorted to ingenuity and innovation.
One of the biggest tactical advances was the use of small, cheap commercial drones for innovative tasks. Highly mobile squad-sized units using $200 drones like the ones all children now seem to have, became much faster in action: they would launch a drone over the enemy several hundred metres distant, see its position and adapt the attack or defence almost immediately.
Israeli army tanks move towards the Gaza Strip in southern Israel, November 1, 2023 [Ariel Schalit/AP Photo]
Their Russian opponents were stuck with the old, cumbersome process of asking higher units for reconnaissance assets to be deployed, then having to wait for the results to trickle down the chain of command.
The next step was to arm the hand-held drones. Their big cousins, weighing several hundred kilogrammes and operated by professional pilots, “real” aircraft just without a pilot on board, have been used for more than 20 years. The United States used missile-armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to perpetrate assassinations across the Middle East. Efficient and powerful but expensive, complex and requiring professional pilots and support.
Ukrainian geeks produced “poor man’s pilotless bombers” within days of the Russian attack, arming them with small bombs, weighing just a few kilogrammes, well within the carrying capacity of hand-held drones.
What can such a puny projectile do?
Only Russian artillery commanders know how many gun crews were killed by such bomblets, but the number is significant. Videos of small drones dropping bomblets at soldiers in the field are countless. Russian soldiers are said to fear them so much that many do not dare sleep in their trenches or move across open ground.
After initial success against infantry and artillery, Ukrainians felt emboldened to attack Russian armour. Even the mightiest tanks are scantily armoured on top: they are built to fight against another tank or withstand infantry missiles, both fired from the ground and at ground level, so the front armour is extremely thick but tank topsides have only very thin armour, as they never expected to face major attack from above. Until the advent of drones.
Bomblets dropped on unsuspecting armour directly below may or may not penetrate through a turret roof. If they do, they usually cause the internal ammunition to explode, destroying the tank and the crew. If they hit the engine compartment, they almost inevitably incapacitate the tank. A drone-bomblet system costs a few thousand dollars, a tank a few million.
There are two methods to counter these asymmetric attacks: active protection, jamming the frequencies that the enemy’s drones use, making them useless, or using anti-drone weapons. Much safer to use, cheaper and simpler is passive protection: putting a “roof” on top of a tank.
A simple metal frame is welded onto the tank with a hard-wire mesh. The drone bomb explodes when it hits the wire and cannot damage the tank. A simple, easy and cheap solution, but nevertheless, it took Russians many months to wake up to their losses and start implementing it.
Why such a long description of Ukraine to explain Gaza?
Because we could replace almost every mention of the Ukrainian army with “Hamas” and every “Russia” could read “Israel”. As the Israeli army entered Gaza, they demonstrated the same gargantuan bureaucracy’s slow approach to learning and implementing changes as their Muscovite counterparts.
Since tanks and infantry closed in on Gaza City, Hamas has been releasing videos showing bomblet attacks, with at least some of them demonstrated as efficient. Just a small percentage of mighty Merkava tanks can be seen with “roofs”, indicating that the decisions to implement such simple and cheap solutions still have to be approved and ordered through the chain of command.
Technical and tactical innovation has not (yet) won the war for the Ukrainians, but it slowed their enemy and gave him a very bloody nose. The implementation of similar weapons and methods might not defend Gaza City against massive Israeli attacks, but it will certainly make it longer and bloodier.
Source: Al Jazeera
На днях министр иностранных дел Германии Анналена Бербок поддержала вступление Украины в ЕС. Она выразила уверенность, что на декабрьском саммите Европейский совет объявит о начале переговоров с Киевом о членстве.
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Столь громкая поддержка со стороны европейской державы — редкая благая весть для президента Владимира Зеленского: он не раз призывал включить его страну в состав ЕС и подчеркивал, что законное место Украины — в Европе.
Рано или поздно Украина вполне может получить членский билет. Европейские дипломаты признали, что поскольку Украина уже получила статус кандидата в июне 2022 года, можно ожидать, что в декабре ЕС даст переговорам зеленый свет, а политический импульс окажется слишком велик, чтобы члены ЕС смогли ему воспротивиться.
Однако на пути Украины встала масса проблем: европейские дипломаты обеспокоены тем, что расширенный союз из 30 и более членов окажется слишком громоздким и не сможет эффективно работать. Таким образом, Бербок работает как с членами, так и с кандидатами насчет предложений по реформе. Но поскольку подходы у стран ЕС изначально отличались, найти компромисс наверняка будет непросто.
В контексте будущих реформ нельзя будет игнорировать тот факт, что Украина значительно беднее большинства стран ЕС: в прошлом году ее ВВП на душу населения составлял всего 4534 доллара по сравнению с 48 433 долларами в Германии — и это если не учитывать многочисленных разрушений и национальной травмы от боевых действий. По внутренним прогнозам самого ЕС насчет расширенного союза с участием Украины, Молдавии, Грузии и шести западнобалканских государств, Киев получит право почти на 186 миллиардов евро в течение семи лет.
Это возымеет серьезные последствия для нынешних стран-членов ЕС и потребует сокращения сельскохозяйственных субсидий примерно на 20%. Из-за права новых, более бедных участников на средства, предназначенные для улучшения инфраструктуры, этого финансирования лишатся Чехия, Эстония, Литва, Словения, Кипр и Мальта.
Возможно, предвидя сопротивление со стороны этих стран, Бербок предложила предоставить Украине и другим потенциальным членам ряд льгот до полного членства, но не ускоренное вступление. Предоставив Украине статус кандидата в члены, Брюссель обозначил семь условий для начала переговоров, в том числе то, что Киев “усилит дальнейшую борьбу с коррупцией”.
Это явный камень преткновения. На следующей неделе Европейская комиссия опубликует доклад о прогрессе стран-кандидатов на пути к членству. Чиновники говорят, что порекомендуют начать переговоры с Украиной, но настоятельно потребуют предъявить доказательства эффективности антикоррупционных мер, а также независимости судебной системы и соблюдения прав меньшинств. И хотя Зеленский решительно возглавил борьбу с коррупцией и принял ряд громких мер, его страна по-прежнему занимает 116-е место в Индексе восприятия коррупции, а советник президента недавно заметил, что чиновники по-прежнему “воруют так, словно завтра конец света”. Так что эти реформы в любом случае будут проходить медленно и мучительно, когда бы они ни проводились, а уж тем более в разгар вооруженного конфликта.
В августе президент Европейского совета Шарль Мишель (Charles Michel) заявил, что ЕС должен быть готов к расширению к 2030 году. Однако прошло всего три месяца, и его настрой кажется чересчур оптимистичным. При всем бахвальстве и резкой риторике Украине предстоит пройти долгий путь, прежде чем она сможет занять свое место за европейским столом.
Автор статьи: Бетани Эллиотт (Bethany Elliott)
As the war in the Middle East between the State of Israel and Hamas terrorists enters its second month, the American people are finding out what former Defense Secretary Robert Gates meant when he said that President Joe Biden has “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
Make no mistake, when it comes to foreign policy Joe Biden is an embarrassing train wreck, so Americans must be prepared for a season of predictable strategic blunders and bad calls coming from his White House. Biden’s poor standing in the polls heading into the 2024 presidential campaign will only make his decision-making on the world stage more politically driven and thus far worse for the security of America and the world.
Look no further than the reprehensible and reckless leaks coming from this White House indicating that President Biden and his senior aides “have discussed the likelihood that Benjamin Netanyahu’s political days are numbered,” and “the topic of Netanyahu’s short political shelf life has come up in recent White House meetings involving Biden,” and “Biden has gone so far as to suggest to Netanyahu that he should think about lessons he would share with his eventual successor…”
ISRAEL’S NETANYAHU REJECTS CEASE-FIRE, SAYS IT’S ‘TIME FOR WAR’ AGAINST HAMAS
Disgusting statements like this designed to weaken Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political standing in his own country at a time of war is irresponsible behavior to say the least. The Prime Minister would be right to ask with friends like these, who needs enemies? President Biden and his pathetically weak and rudderless national security team are playing a dangerous game that’s being driven by cheap electoral politics and it’s making the American people wonder who’s side they’re on.
The president’s recent announcement that he favors a “pause” in the war is not making Israel or the world safer. This is simply not the behavior of a true ally. In fact, it smacks of a politician worried about waning support from his radical left-wing base in his clumsy re-election effort. Biden’s appeasement of extremists in cities and on campuses who hate Israel has gone on for far too long and has been detrimental to our nation. This president needs to find his backbone and moral clarity because this is our time for choosing. The only “pause” that Joe Biden should be calling for is a pause in U.S. taxpayer dollars being sent to antisemites on college campuses and to dictators at the United Nations.
President Biden and his senior advisers obviously don’t approve of the way Prime Minister Netanyahu has chosen to defend his country from Islamic killers who are trying to wipe Israel off the map, but actively undermining his ability to secure a decisive victory is wrong. As Biden pledges “rock solid and unwavering support” support for Israel one day, he’s questioning Netanyahu’s leadership in the press the next.
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And at a time when antisemitic incidents are up 388% since Hamas’ brutal attack that killed 1,400 innocent people, Vice President Kamala Harris is sending out insanely tone-deaf tweets as if Muslims are being threatened in America. “Taking on hate is a national priority,” the Vice President tweeted on November 1st, “Today, @POTUS and I are announcing the country’s first National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia.” It’s simply inconceivable that the Biden White House would allow a statement like this to see the light of day at a moment in time when Islamic terrorists are holding hundreds of innocent people hostage – including Americans – and raping, burning, and beheading Jewish women and children.
So, with a half century of foreign policy blunders under his belt, don’t expect President Biden to do an about face and start getting things right now. Since Hamas’ terrorist rampage and killing spree began on October 7th, this president has reverted to his old playbook.
First, the president refused to blame Iran directly for its role in the brutal Hamas attacks and then he immediately pivoted to delay Israel’s ground invasion. Now, he’s refusing to adequately confront the antisemitic hate that is fomenting in our country due to his party’s shameful moral equivalence. Biden is also playing politics with American aid to Israel by tying it to aid for Ukraine.
Elections do have consequences and unfortunately for America, Israel, and the free world, Biden is the last person who should be calling the shots at a time like this.
The American people understand the difference between right and wrong. They saw Hamas’ atrocities – and Iran’s involvement – with their own eyes. They also see the awful rise in antisemitism and want it stopped immediately.
It’s time for Joe Biden to truly lock arms with Israel — and Prime Minister Netanyahu. History will be the judge.
Donald Trump returns to a New York courtroom on Monday, where he will take the witness stand in a civil fraud trial that threatens to diminish the real-estate empire that built his reputation before he entered politics.
The former U.S. president, like his two adult sons who testified last week, will likely face pointed questions about the questionable accounting practices that a judge has already ruled to be fraudulent.
New York state lawyers argue that those methods enabled him to win favorable financing terms by pumping up the value of his golf courses, apartment towers and other assets at a time when many lenders refused to do business with him. They say such activity earned him $100 million and exaggerated his wealth by $2 billion. Trump has denied wrongdoing.
Unlike the four criminal cases the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination faces, this civil trial does not threaten to put him in prison as he mounts a comeback White House bid.
Indeed, Trump has been leaning into the experience, using it to solicit campaign donations and argue that he is being targeted for his political views.
But it could undercut Trump’s image, cultivated over decades, as a glamorous billionaire who shuttles between elegant resorts and premium golf courses that bear his name.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking $250 million in fines, as well as restrictions that would prevent Trump and his sons Eric and Donald Jr from doing business in their home state.
Judge Arthur Engoron has already canceled business certificates for companies that control large portions of his business, though that order is on hold during appeal.
Evidence introduced at trial so far has revealed that company officials, including Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr, were involved in efforts to manipulate the assessed value of trophy properties like the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
One witness, his former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, testified that Trump directed him to doctor financial statements to boost his net worth.
Trump’s anger has been clear throughout.
Though his presence until today has not been required in court, he has already appeared several times to glower at the proceedings from the defendant’s table and complain to TV cameras outside the chamber that Engoron, James and others involved in the case are motivated by politics. He has also kept up a steady stream of criticism on social media.
That has earned him fines of $15,000 for twice violating a limited gag order that prevents him from criticizing court staff. Trump’s lawyers have chafed at that order and indicated they might use it as the basis for an appeal, but Engoron expanded it on Friday to cover them as well.
Trump’s crowded legal calendar threatens to take him off the campaign trail for much of next year.
His election campaign has used the trial as a fundraising opportunity, writing at the outset on Oct. 2 that he was defending his family and reputation from New York Democrats it called “corrupt tyrants.”
Republican voters do not seem to be bothered by his legal woes, as polls show he holds a commanding lead in the party’s presidential nominating contest.
The trial was originally scheduled to run through early December but could wrap up sooner as the state calls its final witnesses this week. It is unclear how many witnesses the defense will call.
Trump’s daughter Ivanka is due to testify on Wednesday, though she is not a defendant in the case.