Day: November 13, 2023
Sacrificing pawns and bishop, Putin moves his chess game to mittlespiel njjewishnews.timesofisrael.com
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears the end of its second year, a conclusion to the conflict seems as distant as ever.
Kyiv’s counteroffensive has failed to decisively break through the Russian Army’s prepared defenses in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is digging in for a long war and assumes it can outlast the West’s interest and Ukraine’s will to fight.
Without a firm U.S. commitment and strategy to see the war to a victorious conclusion, Putin’s prediction that he can outlast Ukraine and the West may come to pass.
During the summer and fall of 2023, the scale of Russia’s societal, financial and political mobilization to support the war effort became apparent. Under the draft budget passed by the Russian State Duma on Oct. 26, defense spending for 2024 will rise by 68 percent to the equivalent of $115 billion, making up almost a third of total spending.
This explosion in military spending will help buoy the Russian economy for the long haul, even if Russia’s predicted 2024 economic growth rate of 2.3 percent (per the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development) will be accompanied by the inflationary effects of high social and military spending.
Under the public prodding of President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s defense industry has expanded the production of key munitions and equipment for a long campaign.
Despite initial disruptions to defense production brought on by Western retaliatory sanctions following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is reportedly “on track” to manufacture 2 million artillery shells a year. To circumvent challenging U.S. sanctions on the export of critical electronics and chips to Russia, it has turned to creative import workarounds to acquire the critical components it lacks the ability to produce domestically.
Russia is also forging ahead with plans to produce 6,000 Iranian-developed drones in Tatarstan that would be necessary to sustain Russia’s air bombardment campaign against Ukrainian civilian and military targets and to import massive amounts of munitions from North Korea.
Rather than attempting a risky total mobilization of Russia’s population, the Kremlin has continued to choose a more sustainable strategy of partial mobilization to support a long war.
In September 2022, the Kremlin announced a “partial mobilization” program to replace and refine a disjointed shadow mobilization strategy, which avoided a single large manpower push with an eye on long-term viability. With the assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin in August, the Kremlin power vertical’s most significant “ultra-patriot” challenger from within the ruling elite has been removed. The Wagner boss had already been sidelined after his June mutiny, but his death likely gives the Kremlin reason to believe that it can continue to prosecute the war on its terms without fear of intra-elite challenges for the foreseeable future.
Just as Russia’s logistical legwork to support a long war takes shape, the domestic and international factors that enable sustained U.S. support for Ukraine are weakening. Hamas’s bloody October attack on Israel and Israel’s ground operation in Gaza has already knocked Ukraine out of the headlines. As the U.S. responds to Iranian proxy attacks on its forces and shift forces into the wider Middle East, the threat of an expanding conflict threatens to absorb Washington’s bandwidth.
Encouragingly, the House has resolved its leadership crisis through Rep. Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) selection to lead the chamber. He promised in an Oct. 26 interview that America would not abandon Ukraine. Despite his previous opposition to Ukraine aid legislation as well as the White House and Senate’s preference for a combined Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border security package, Johnson plans to “marry” Ukraine aid with border security in a bid to secure their passage together.
No matter how this strategy is received by the conference, Johnson will need to delicately thread a needle of legislative priorities (including passing the fiscal year 2024 budget) to push Ukraine’s aid package across the finish line, all while wrangling a Republican Conference whose interest in providing a large aid package to Ukraine is decidedly mixed.
Nonetheless, Russia’s war effort still faces substantial obstacles. While Russia has boosted its military industry, its economy is distorted by the demands of wartime mobilization. Despite the absence to date of decisive breakthroughs in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Kyiv’s forces continue to inflict losses on Russian forces and reach into Russia’s rear areas with long-range fires. Ukraine and its Western partners have already demonstrated remarkable staying power in this conflict.
However, staving off defeat will require Washington to provide a sustained flow of aid to Ukraine in pursuit of defined aims, no matter how domestic imperatives and events elsewhere in the world may demand attention elsewhere. Otherwise, the Kremlin’s long bet on Western loss of interest in Ukraine could pay off.
Wesley Culp is a research assistant for defense strategy and great-power competition at the American Enterprise Institute. He can be found on Twitter @WesleyJCulp.
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The Israel Defence Forces says it has secured a “Hamas military stronghold” inside the Gaza Strip.
It said in a statement the stronghold belonged to “the Hamas terrorist organisation in the northern Gaza Strip”.
“Furthermore, IDF troops located a number of Hamas terrorists who barricaded themselves in a building adjacent to the al Quds Hospital, and planned to carry out an attack on the forces from there.”
Anti-tank missiles, launchers, other weapons and “various intelligence materials” were reportedly found inside.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 09:15
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Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at extending “indefinite control” over security in Gaza as Israel ramps up its ground invasion into the region.
“I think Israel will for an indefinite period have security responsibility. We have seen what happens when Israel does not have the security responsibility,” he told ABC news, referencing the 7 October attack.
“When we do not have this security responsibility what we have is an eruption of Hamas terror on a scale we could not imagine.”
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at extending ‘indefinite control’ over Gaza
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 10:05
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An Israeli Defence Forces tank attacked Lebanese territory after it was attack by a “terrorist squad”, a military spokesperson said.
“A short time ago, an IDF tank attacked a terrorist squad in Lebanese territory that tried to launch an anti-tank missile towards Israeli territory near the Shatula area.
“Also, earlier today IDF forces attacked a position of the terrorist organisation Hezbollah, in order to remove a threat,” IDF spokesperon Daniel Hagari said.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 10:30
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Thousands of Gazans are using the evacuation corridor the country has opened along the Salah al Din Road, Israel’s defence ministry agency the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) said.
“Happening now. Thousands pass through the evacuation corridor the IDF opened for civilians in northern Gaza to move southwards,” it said on X, formerly Twitter.
The road allows those in the north to travel to the south, where IDF forces are not yet operating on the ground – although airstrikes are still occurring across the strip.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 11:00
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The United Arab Emirates is to set up a field hospital in the Gaza Strip, it has been reported.
Five aircraft flew out of Abu Dhabi for Arish in northern Egypt carrying equipment and supplies for the 150-bed facility, WAM news agency said late on Monday.
An official contacted by AFP said there was no immediate information on how the equipment will be transferred to Gaza, where there is only one operational border point, the Rafah crossing near Arish.
Palestinians stand above debris after Israeli bombardment in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 11:30
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The United Nations has warned that “no place is safe” in Gaza.
No place is safe in Gaza. Sixty-six people have been killed & 540 injured sheltering in 50 UNRWA installations this past month.
“People sheltering under the UN flag- seeking safety in UNRWA schools- were killed in places that should be protected under International Humanitarian Law,” it said on X, formerly Twitter.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 12:00
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People hold Israeli flags in Jerusalem, marking one-month since Hamas’s attacks which left 1,400 dead
People light candles on the one-month anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October which left 1,400 dead
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 12:30
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The Israel Defence Forces have claimed they intercepted “a suspicious aerial target” near the blue-line which marks the UN-drawn boundary between Israel and Lebanon.
“A short while ago, the IDF aerial defence array intercepted a suspicious aerial target that was identified in the area of the border with Lebanon before it crossed into Israeli territory.
“Furthermore, a short while ago, terrorists fired at an IDF post in the area of Aramshe in northern Israel. No injuries were reported. IDF soldiers responded with artillery fire toward the origins of the shooting in Lebanon,” it wrote on Telegram.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 13:00
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Germany has decided to release 71 million euros in aid as part of an ongoing review of its support for Palestinians, and has pledged an additional 20 million euros in new funding, the development ministry said.
Germany responded to Hamas militants’ bloody attack on Israel on 7 October by temporarily suspending its development aid to the Palestinian Territories pending review.
“Due to the fragile situation in the region, the review has not yet been fully completed,” a statement from the ministry said.
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 13:30
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Rishi Sunak believes a pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day would be “provocative and disrespectful”.
The PM’s official spokesman said operational decisions on whether to ban the planned march in London were for the Metropolitan Police. But the spokesman said the Government would “carefully consider” any application to prevent the march.“
The prime minister himself does not think it’s right for these sorts of protests to be scheduled on Armistice Day,” the spokesman said. “He believes that is provocative and disrespectful.”
Rishi Sunak believes a pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day would be ‘provocative and disrespectful’
Alexander Butler7 November 2023 14:24