black swan Palace coup – Google Search https://t.co/HR6NcQsqLt
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 24, 2023
Day: December 24, 2023
Predictions in the Intelligence Analysis – Google Search https://t.co/3HfsM7tyOz
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 24, 2023
@mikenov: Jack Devine of CIA
Jack Devine of CIA – Google Search https://t.co/vKAVr9PInP
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 24, 2023
AUDIO POST: ‘Palace coup’: Putin’s days are numbered https://t.co/nPCuNF5vOs pic.twitter.com/2OexG26kQ2
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 24, 2023
⚡⚡Borrell: #putin has decided to continue the war until the final victory.
“If we don’t change course quickly, if we don’t mobilize all our capabilities, it will allow putin to win the war in #Ukraine.” 1/2⬇️ pic.twitter.com/wM2R3jMEU2
— 🇺🇦UkraineIntoucH🇺🇦 (@UkraineINtoucH) December 24, 2023
ASSOLUTAMENTE GENIALE 🤣#Putin #Russia https://t.co/jthOXARudx
— Autogrillo Crypto 🇺🇦🇮🇱☀️ (@AutogriLLocryp) December 24, 2023
When Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a 50-minute phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin last weekend, it was only the second time the two leaders had spoken since the war against Hamas started on 7 October. The two leaders were once close allies, but no longer: relations between Putin and Netanyahu have now fractured, perhaps beyond repair.
In a statement released immediately after the call, Netanyahu criticised Russia’s close alliance with Iran. The Kremlin blamed Israel for ‘the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza’ – repeating a position expressed by Putin in the past, including in a meeting with his ally and staunch Israel critic, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, back in October.
If Russia has gone cold on Israel, it appears to be warming to Hamas
The breakdown of Putin and Netanyahu’s relationship is no surprise. Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has announced that, because Israel is an ‘occupying state’, it didn’t have the right to defend itself against Hamas – an organisation which, of course, killed, raped and tortured some 1,200 Israelis and abducted dozens of women and children. Nebenzya also blamed Israel for committing ‘crimes against humanity’ in Gaza. What’s more, Russia – which started an illegal war in which tens of thousands of people have died – has supported ceasefire resolutions in the United Nations security council and general assembly.
If Russia has gone cold on Israel, it appears to be warming to Hamas. A Hamas delegation has been warmly welcomed in Moscow and Putin is rumoured to have promised them military aid. Hamas, which receives much of its funding, weapons and training from Iran and Qatar, is also still not recognised by Russia as a terror organisation.
Before the war in Ukraine, Israel and Russia enjoyed positive strategic relations. The bond and trust between Putin and Netanyahu had allowed Israel to operate against Hezbollah and Iranian targets within Syria and Iran, actions that necessitated quiet consent from Russia.
Relations between the two countries have, however, deteriorated since Israel decided to stand by Ukraine. Israel’s support of Kyiv, under the short-lived centrist coalition government of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, was limited and hesitant due to Russia’s influence in the Middle East. But this was still enough to damage relations between the two countries.
When Netanyahu returned to power almost a year ago exactly, he sought to restore relations with Putin. He worried that a strained relationship might push Russia closer to Iran. Netanyahu’s assessment has been proven correct: the strategic alliance between the two pariah states has gone from strength to strength. But even if Israel’s position on Ukraine was different, Russia and Iran would still have grown closer. Increasingly isolated following the invasion of Ukraine, and under strict international sanctions, Russia has grown reliant on Iran for supplying weapons and drones while it struggles militarily.
Israelis used to believe that Putin had a soft spot for Israel, primarily because of the large population of Russian Jews living in the country. However, Putin’s support only lasted as long as Israel served Russian interests.
The war in Gaza has accentuated the division between the global democratic west and authoritarian east. The eastern bloc is headed up by Russia and includes Iran, Syria and Hamas, while Israel has been embraced by the US and other western allies since the start of the war. In Putin’s dichotomous worldview, Israel has now been pushed even further away from Russia and into the arms of those he considers his enemies. As such, the Middle East has become the latest theatre of the 21st century’s cold war.
The war in Gaza has served Putin by drawing the world’s attention away from Ukraine and from the atrocities committed by Russian forces. Putin also hopes that the aid given by the Americans to Israel will eat into the aid that Washington provides Ukraine. This is incentivising Putin to inflame the war in Gaza, along with his ally Iran, which, as well as supporting terror organisations in the West Bank, has been guiding Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel from Lebanon.
In an effort to establish the image of Russia as a champion of human rights and supporter of a peaceful solution to the war, the Kremlin has launched a campaign of disinformation and conspiracy theories. Putin claimed, for example, that ‘ruling elites’ in the US are responsible for the killing of Palestinians, as well as for other events across the Middle East and in Ukraine. He argues that the US benefits from global instability. This is, of course, somewhat ironic: despite pointing the finger at the US as being responsible for violence and instability, it’s Putin himself who has acted as an agent of chaos in the region. He has cosied up to terrorists and supported Iranian militarisation efforts for years now.
After the phone call between Netanyahu and Putin, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has, for the first time, condemned Hamas’s attack, recognising it as an act of terrorism. At the same time, Lavrov also accused Israel of indiscriminately shelling Gaza.
Despite this condemnation, though, Russia’s position is unlikely to change. The Russian state has also called on Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages still held in Gaza. This isn’t a sudden show of support for Israel. Instead, it’s meant to help Russia establish itself as a relevant and powerful actor in the Middle East.
Jerusalem (AFP) – Among the nations condemning Israel’s war in Gaza, one has stood out — Russia had built a growing friendship with Israel, but that dalliance is over, analysts said, erased by the shifting sands of Middle East geopolitics.
Israel and Russia had grown close under Netanyahu and Putin © MAXIM SHEMETOV / POOL/AFP
Just under two years ago, the picture had been very different.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Israel didn’t join the West in sanctioning Moscow, a demonstration of the alliance of convenience between the two governments.
Now, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is among Israel’s loudest critics and has refused to denounce Hamas’s bloody October 7 attack.
Instead, his war against Ukraine has driven Russia into a different coupling, this time with Israel’s sworn enemy Iran.
Russia has officially backed calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza at the UN, while early in the war Putin accused Israel of contemplating tactics comparable to Nazi Germany’s brutal siege of what is now Saint Petersburg during World War II.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says Israel’s offensive, aimed at destroying Hamas, has killed more than 19,600 people, mostly women and children.
Putin has grown close to Tehran since invading Ukraine © Sergei BOBYLYOV / POOL/AFP
In late October, Moscow went as far as to host envoys from the Palestinian militant group and Iran, which the Russian government said included talks on releasing foreign hostages. Israel called the meeting “a reprehensible step that gives support to terrorism”.
This month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Moscow for talks with Putin, while on Wednesday Russia made a joint demand alongside the Arab League for a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution.
In Israel, the mood is one of shock and anger. Putin’s decision not to criticise Hamas, even with Russian citizens among the roughly 1,140 people killed by the militants on October 7, was “a foul betrayal”, said Israeli historian Semion Goldin.
Russia has come down squarely “on the side of the aggressor, not at all on our side”, said Golding, a researcher in Russian studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
‘Israel deluded itself’
It’s all a far cry from where Israeli-Russian relations were as recently as last year.
During much of the Cold War, Soviet-Israeli relations were frosty. The Kremlin prevented many Jews from emigrating to Israel, while the Soviet Union propagated anti-Zionist propaganda and provided military aid to Arab states, in particular during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Russia has angered Israel by backing an immediate ceasefire at the UN Security Council © David Dee Delgado / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
However, following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, the newly re-emerged Russia established much closer ties with Israel, that saw increased tourism and a massive wave of Russian Jewish migration to Israel.
Today, there are more than a million Russian-speakers from the former Soviet Union in Israel, forming a substantial political bloc.
Under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the relationship appeared to grow even closer.
Following Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, Israel worked closely with the Kremlin as it mounted its own air campaign in Syria targeting Iranian-backed forces, said former Israeli ambassador to Russia, Arkady Milman, now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Russia controlled Syria’s airspace and was, in effect, authorising Israel’s raids, he said.
Russia’s intervention in Syria drew it closer to Israel © Maxime POPOV / AFP
With eyes on the military situation in Syria, the large Jewish populations in Ukraine and Russia, and its own sizeable Russian and Ukrainian communities, Israel opted against slapping sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
That position held through three Israeli prime ministers.
Raised hackles
As Putin’s war in Ukraine has dragged on and his international isolation deepened, he has turned against Israel’s quiet friendship.
Instead, the Russian president has forged a new alliance with Iran, with Tehran delivering drones to Moscow and the pair cooperating in evading Western sanctions.
That inevitably raised hackles in Israel, which fears Iran joining it as a nuclear-armed state.
Moreover, Iran would like Russia “to neutralise Israel in Syria”, said Edward Waysband, an associate researcher at New Europe College, a prospect “that is unacceptable for Israel”.
Israeli linguistics professor Cyril Aslanov said Moscow’s reaction to the Israel-Hamas war had revealed that the “so-called rapprochement” between Israel and Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union “was profoundly illusory”.
Russia is allying itself with nations opposed to Israel’s war in Gaza © SAID KHATIB / AFP
Aslanov once travelled back and forth to Russia, visiting universities to spread Jewish culture, but he said that appeared a bygone era, with anti-Semitic incidents in Russia and warnings against travel to some regions.
Now, Israel finds itself denouncing its erstwhile partner. Netanyahu criticised “the dangerous cooperation between Russia and Iran” in a phone call with Putin in early December and expressed his dissatisfaction with the Kremlin’s stance at the United Nations.
Iran aside, the Kremlin has chosen to use the Israel-Hamas war as a chance to denounce the United States and its allies while positioning itself as a champion of the Global South and “Orthodox Christians in the Holy Land”, said Waysband.
With Moscow prioritising anti-Western rhetoric and Israel a close ally of Washington, it “finds itself de facto facing this alliance against the West”, said Milman.
© 2023 AFP
זה יום קשה של לחימה. למרות הכאב והיגון העמוק אנחנו ממשיכים בכל הכוח, עד הסוף, עד לניצחון >> pic.twitter.com/Zj9D4hOXeM
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) December 24, 2023
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks at the start of the Government meeting today >>https://t.co/frIJuTFv6b pic.twitter.com/v8cEpQ25OG
— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) December 24, 2023