A recent string of polls overlapping with former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction last week show President Joe Biden beating Trump, after surveys have consistently shown Trump with a narrow lead.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump’s early polling lead slips
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Of four major polls that overlapped with Trump’s conviction Thursday in Manhattan, Biden leads in two of them: He’s ahead by two points in a Reuters/Ipsos survey taken Thursday and Friday and by one point in a Morning Consult survey taken Friday, while the race is tied in an I&I/TIPP survey taken Wednesday to Friday and Trump leads by two points in a HarrisX survey conducted Thursday and Friday.
While the polls appear to be a positive sign for Biden’s campaign, all of the results fall within the polls’ margins of error, and the I&I/TIPP poll shows an improvement for Trump since the group’s May survey, when he trailed Biden by two percentage points.
The polls follow a NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Thursday that found Biden would beat Trump, 50% to 48%, in a two-way matchup, but would lose by four points with third-party candidates—independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein—on the ballot.
In the the seven crucial swing states that will likely decide the election—Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—all of which Biden won narrowly in 2020 with the exception of North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden.
A May Cook Political Report survey found Trump up by three points in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leads Biden by four points overall across the battleground states, and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.
On a national scale, other May polls show Trump and Biden are virtually tied, including an Economist/YouGov survey that found Trump beating Biden by just one point in a five-way race, a Fox News poll that found Trump leading by one point in a head-to-head matchup, a Reuters/Ipsos poll that found Trump and Biden were tied, while Morning Consult’s weekly poll taken May 26-28 shows Trump leading Biden by two points.
A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty on Thursday of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a scheme to cover up hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels and illegally influence the 2016 election. Trump pleaded not guilty in the case and has vowed to appeal the verdict.
Surprising Fact
In a race this close, Kennedy has the potential to sway the election—though it’s unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widens his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy, independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. The May Fox poll shows Trump’s lead increases two points with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy draws votes from key Biden supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a six-way contest, but support grows to 18% for voters between the ages of 18 and 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And the recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead is unchanged with Kennedy on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy and other third-party candidates on the ballot.
Polls seem to be skewed in Trump’s favor by disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis that found Biden led the last three Times/Siena polls among 2020 voters, but trailed among registered voters overall.
Tangent
Polls have consistently suggested Biden—and the Democratic party as a whole—have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino and younger voters. The May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found young voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just 4 points and Biden leads among Gen Z/Millennials by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote swings in Trump’s favor among the two groups (by 6 points among Gen Z/Millennials and 8 among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. An April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll also found Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in the six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trailing him by four points among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups who voted for Biden by more than 60% in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, such as New York, where he’s up nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020.
Key Background
Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties’ nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm as both candidates have relatively low favorability ratings below 45%. The NBC poll found 64% voters said they were “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign around his legal woes, accusing prosecutors and judges in the cases of working at Biden’s behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, though there’s no evidence suggesting the notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, has cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the January 6 Capitol riots, and has hammered Trump over his appointment of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, while the New York Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion. Biden has seen some gains in polls since both candidates clinched their parties’ nominations and the president has ramped up his campaign activity. Trump’s polling lead over Biden has decreased more than three percentage points, to 0.5, since the end of January, according to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker, while the Economist poll tracker shows Trump leading by one point, after showing a tie for almost all of April and May after Trump had been leading Biden since September.
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