Russian Infighting Raises Questions About Wagner Group’s Future

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group faces an uncertain future after Saturday’s failed insurrection and the expulsion of the mercenary organization’s top leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus on Tuesday. But one thing is clear: To the outside world, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power has started to look unsteady.

According to U.S. officials, a senior Russian military leader had advance knowledge of Prigozhin’s rebellion against Putin. Gen. Sergey Surovikin, a former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped Prigozhin plan last weekend’s siege of Rostov-on-Don and march toward Moscow. Surovikin was replaced in January but maintained influence over Russia’s war operations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying unity remains strong within Russia’s military.

If Surovikin or any other Russian commanders assisted Prigozhin, then Putin could face a bigger split within his ranks than previously thought—especially after Prigozhin called for the resignations of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. In this way, Putin’s very authority and grip on power could be threatened.

Despite increasing concerns over political infighting, the Kremlin dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for “armed mutiny” on Tuesday, just as the Wagner leader arrived in Belarus, where he will remain in exile. According to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Putin suggested executing Prigozhin but was convinced not to during negotiations in which Lukashenko told the Russian leader that “a bad peace is better than any war.”

Meanwhile, Wagner may face consequences beyond Russia. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned four companies and one individual connected to the organization’s work in Africa. The four corporations—Midas Ressources, Diamville, Industrial Resources General Trading, and Limited Liability Company—all assist in funding the Wagner Group through Africa’s illegal gold and diamond mining trades. Andrey Nikolayevich Ivanov, Wagner’s facilitator in Mali, was also sanctioned.

“The sanctions showcase how Washington is aiming to cripple the Wagner Group’s international operations beyond the war in Ukraine, even as Moscow may cripple Wagner’s operations closer to home,” FP’s Robbie Gramer reported.

This ruling came the same day that numerous U.S. federal agencies issued warnings of terrorism, money laundering, human rights abuses, and environmental degradation related to sub-Saharan Africa’s illegal gold trade. As of February, Wagner had generated more than $250 million from natural resources in Africa and the Middle East in exchange for security services.

Deadly missile strike in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukrainian authorities arrested an individual suspected of assisting Russia in directing a missile strike at a pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. The Tuesday attack killed at least 11 people, including three minors, and wounded 61 others. Multistory buildings, homes, schools, and various other structures were also damaged in the assault.

Initial reports said the attack was conducted with S-300 missiles, a long-range surface-to-air missile system that has a poor track record of target accuracy. However, Ukrainian officials said Russian troops used Iskander ballistic missiles, which have high accuracy and are primarily used against military targets such as command centers. Kramatorsk is a front-line city that houses the Ukrainian army’s regional headquarters, suggesting it may have been deliberately targeted.

France protests racism in policing. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the killing of a 17-year-old by police—a rare rebuke of law enforcement in a country with a history of discriminatory policies. The teenager, who was of North African descent, was shot and killed on Monday while stopped at a traffic light near Paris. One of the police officers accused of shooting the boy is now under investigation for voluntary homicide. “It is unexplainable and inexcusable,” Macron said. “Nothing justifies the death of a young man.”

Protests erupted across France on Tuesday night following the teenager’s killing, where individuals launched fireworks and set cars on fire. Around 1,200 police officers were deployed during the demonstrations, resulting in 31 arrests. According to French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, 2,000 more police officers will be deployed Wednesday night after 24 officers were injured during the protests.

Flare-up over Nagorno-Karabakh. Violence escalated this week over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region: Four Armenian soldiers were killed on Wednesday by an Azerbaijani artillery and drone attack. The deaths came 24 hours after Azerbaijan’s defense ministry alleged one of its soldiers was shot by Armenian troops.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday in Washington to discuss mediating the yearslong conflict; both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim Nagorno-Karabakh as their own territory. However, regional security and stability remain out of reach.

Next time someone tells you they’re not getting any younger, remember that in some parts of the world, it’s possible. South Koreans wound back their age clocks by one or two years on Wednesday after a new law went into effect that requires citizens to follow the international method of counting age. Until Wednesday, South Koreans were born 1 year old, and every Jan. 1, they added a year. Talk about turning back time.