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Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Will EU take on Azerbaijan? – DW – 09/21/2023


For years, the European Union was treading a thin line, keeping things even-handed when dealing with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The two neighbors are locked into a decades-old dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, the mountainous breakaway region located in Azerbaijani territory but populated largely by ethnic Armenians.

Long-standing hostilities erupted 30 years ago when the Soviet Union, to which both countries previously belonged, was dissolved and they’ve flared up periodically ever since. In 2020, Baku emerged victorious from a six-week war and reasserted control over swaths of the region.

Ever since Baku launched what it described as “anti-terrorist” military activities to restore its sovereignty in the enclave earlier this week, a number of voices in the European Parliament have been calling for the EU to get tougher on Azerbaijan.

In a written statement, four leading EU representatives with senior positions called on member states “to fundamentally reconsider the EU’s relations with Azerbaijan in this light, and consider imposing sanctions against responsible Azerbaijani authorities.” On Thursday, more than 60 parliamentarians asked for sanctions in a separate statement.

Despite the strong feelings, these elected officials don’t have much foreign policy clout. The question is whether those calling the shots, the national EU governments, would really take the plunge, especially since the EU clinched a gas supply deal with Baku last year to help replace direct supplies from Russia.

What role does the EU play in the conflict?

Traditionally, the EU has been a relatively small player compared to Russia, which brokered a peace deal — deemed unfavorable to Armenians — in the 2020 war as well as a cease-fire this week, and Turkey, which is a close ally and economic partner of Azerbaijan, not to mention a major arms supplier.

The flag of the "Republic of Artsakh", how some Armenians refer to Nagorno-Karabakh, is waved in YerevanEarlier this week, protesters in Yerevan accused Pashinyan of abandoning Karabakh ArmeniansImage: SNA/IMAGO

At present, both Russia and the EU are coordinating separate peace talks between Yerevan and Baku. With Moscow tied up with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Baku appears emboldened, analyst Marcel Röthig told DW from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.

“Turkey sees its role as the new big player in the Caucasus, as the one who’s shaping the Caucasus,” said Röthig, an analyst from Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation. “Azerbaijan feels the backing. And that’s why they became much more adventurous than they have been in the years before.”

Armenia, along with other post-Soviet states, is in a military alliance with Russia but Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has increasingly appealed to the West, including the EU.

What’s at stake for the EU?

Earlier this year, the EU set up a civilian mission in Armenia in response to a request from Yerevan, including operations at several points along the border with Azerbaijan.

Its stated goal, according to the website of the EU Mission in Armenia, is “observing and reporting on the situation on the ground; contributing to human security in conflict-affected areas and based on the above, contributing to build confidence between populations of both Armenia and Azerbaijan and, where possible, their authorities.”

European Council President Charles Michel (center) with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (right) walking on a red carpet in front of the EU member flagsThe EU is engaged in negotiations with Baku and Yerevan, but that didn’t stop the latest round of hostilitiesImage: Dursun Aydemir/AA/picture alliance

However, the EU also signed a gas supply deal with Baku last year. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen even praised authoritarian Azerbaijan as a “crucial partner” in mitigating the energy crisis, despite serious concerns among Western observers about the state of democracy and human rights violation there.

With war already raging in Ukraine and a number of powerful geopolitical players — US, China, Iran and Israel — involved in the Caucasus region, the situation is delicate. “The EU’s aim is to have a stable vicinity unthreatened by wars,” Czech EU parliamentarian Marketa Gregorova, who sits in the Green group, told DW in a written statement.

“The EU’s strategic interest is for Armenia and Azerbaijan to prosper, to minimize Russian influence in Armenia and the region, help Azerbaijan achieve democracy and to resolve the ongoing decades-long conflict,” she added.

Damaged residential buildings after attacks on Stepanakert, Nagorno-KarabakhNagorno-Karabakh lies in tatters after fresh fighting earlier this weekImage: TAR-TASS/IMAGO

Gregorova said she had long called for the EU to play a greater role in mediating long-term peace, but there are risks attached — especially due to the gas deal. “If we get deeply involved in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan will have less interest in supplying the EU with energy, at least at current price and conditions,” she said.

The solution, she said, is “to concentrate on further diversification of our resources, and a swift one.” Sanctions could be an option, but the EU should also look at attaching conditions to the gas agreement, Gregorova said.

What comes next?

With Azerbaijan now claiming control over Nagorno-Karabakh and ethnic Armenian separatist fighters laying down arms, the next concern is the humanitarian situation as well as keeping both sides talking.

Baku is blockading the only road between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, choking supplies to civilians. In the fresh fighting, many ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have fled, leading to accusations of ethnic cleansing.

In a written statement on Tuesday, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell condemned the military escalation and called for “the immediate cessation of hostilities and for Azerbaijan to stop the current military activities.”

“There is an urgent need to return to dialogue between Baku and Karabakh Armenians,” Borrell said. “This military escalation should not be used as a pretext to force the exodus of the local population.”

In Brussels, ambassadors from the EU member states discussed the situation on Wednesday, but only one country showed interest in resorting to sanctions immediately, an EU diplomatic source told DW on condition of anonymity. The focus was on stopping military actions, moving forward through diplomacy and dealing with the humanitarian situation, the source added.

All eyes will be on the Spanish city of Granada in two weeks, where close to 50 European countries are expected for talks in the European Political Community format — including Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Edited by: Martin Kuebler

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What Should America Do Now in Nagorno-Karabakh?


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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev appears to relish embarrassing the State Department.

Just weeks after the now-voided ceasefire, Aliyev castigated on live television Andrew Schofer, at the time the chief US representative on the Karabakh issue, during a Baku meeting.

Noting that Aliyev did not invite the American and French representatives, he said he would nevertheless listen on the off chance they had something worthwhile to say.

Aliyev, though, had no desire to listen to diplomats. “Azerbaijan resolved the conflict, which lasted for almost 30 years, resolved by force and political means,” he said. “And I can only agree with what [Russian] president [Vladimir] Putin said, the president of the one of the co-chair countries, that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is already in the history… Azerbaijan resolved it itself. And by defeating Armenia on the battlefield, we forced aggressor to admit its defeat, to sign declaration which we consider as an act of capitulation of Armenia.”

In the three years since, he has only redoubled his contempt for American diplomacy. Testifying last week before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, acting Assistant Secretary of State Yuri Kim declared, “We will not tolerate any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Aliyev called her bluff and Kim, who hopes to be the next US ambassador to Turkey, showed her declaration both empty and insincere.

It is not a good look for American diplomacy. Nor is Kim alone. Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated there could be “no military solution” or that “the use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable” in recent days. To sit idle as Aliyev imposes through military force a solution that leads to the mass flight or expulsion of one of the region’s oldest Christian communities not only reinforces the notion that Blinken is the weakest secretary of State since Frank Kellogg a century ago. The danger is that not only Aliyev but also other dictators will see inaction or empty rhetoric as a greenlight. The Armenia fight might not be over, after all, especially as Aliyev occupies portions of Armenia and claims even capital Yerevan as an Azeri city.

So how should the United States react?

First, Azerbaijan’s military conquest should not push aside the ongoing investigations of severe human rights abuses and torture and executions of prisoners of war stemming from the 2020 war. The best resource on these cases rests in a repository at the Institute for the Study of Human Rights at Columbia University assembled by now-Georgetown University Scholar David Phillips and his able team.  

Second, will Congress assess how recent waivers of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act contributed and enabled the Azerbaijani military action? Will any diplomats from the Trump or Biden administrations be held accountable by Congress for flagrant violations of U.S. law?

Third, what will the United States do to ensure preservation of cultural heritage? While the Hudson Institute’s Luke Coffey says, “There is no religious dimension to this conflict,” such a statement is patently false. Put aside the rhetoric of Al Qaeda-affiliated mercenaries from 2020. There is a long history of the Aliyev regime destroying Christian sites or seeking to erase Armenian heritage. Consider, for example, the destruction of the Julfa Cemetery. Every scholar or analyst apologetic to Azerbaijan’s position should explain what motivates such destruction and if they can voice any plausible excuse. The same holds true for the sandblasting of Armenian inscriptions in other churches and monasteries.  The simple facts are these: Few believe the Azerbaijani narrative because Aliyev has not allowed foreign media or foreign observers in for years. Pinocchio’s nose is too big to ignore the ongoing eradication of a community. There is a reason why so many living under Azerbaijani guns fear for their lives.

Fourth, the State Department should immediately dispatch multiple diplomats from the US Embassy in Baku to Stepanakert to monitor the situation. Atrocities occur in the dark. If Azerbaijan has nothing to hide, then it will not impede diplomats visiting beleaguered, Christian populations on land Azerbaijan controls.

Fifth and finally, Azerbaijani officials say that they will allow Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to remain as equal citizens under Azerbaijani law. Put aside the fact that they already accuse many generations-old Armenians of the region of having no proof of residency. Congress should demand the State Department release a report assessing the Azerbaijani constitution and the independence of the Azerbaijani judiciary. Does the State Department believe that the Aliyev family is subordinate to Azerbaijani law or above it? Does Blinken believe that Azerbaijani will, for example, bring to justice those seen beheading or mutilating prisoners on video?

Freedom and faith suffer today, but Azerbaijani triumphalism need not be the final chapter. The downside of imposing a military solution, rather than the “consensual” solution for which Secretary of State James Baker called when he crafted the American position to the region more than three decades ago, is that the pendulum of unilateralism swings both ways. Aliyev will not live forever, and even the most ambitious family dynasties unravel. In the interim, it is essential that the State Department cease its business-as-usual with Azerbaijan and work overtime to help one of the world’s oldest Christian communities that, unfortunately, Washington’s own distraction and indifference now imperils.

About the Author

Now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Dr. Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).

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First big grain ship leaves Ukraine“s Black Sea port


2023-09-22T07:44:38Z

The first big ship carrying grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port has set sail since Moscow quit a deal in July to allow exports, a Ukrainian deputy prime minister said on Friday, part of Kyiv’s campaign to break Russia’s de facto blockade.

The Aroyat “left the port Chornomorsk after loading 17,600 (metric tons of) Ukrainian wheat for Egypt,” Oleksandr Kubrakov said on the X social media app, formerly Twitter.

He posted a photo of the ship at sea.

It was the second of two bulk carriers to leave the port this week using what Kyiv calls a new temporary humanitarian corridor. The first, the much smaller Resilient Africa, left on Tuesday, testing the route with a cargo of just 3,000 tons.

After invading Ukraine last year, Moscow closed off the Black Sea ports from one of the world’s biggest suppliers of grain, in what Kyiv and its Western backers called an attempt to use global food supplies as blackmail. Moscow said the ports could bring in weapons.

From July 2022 the ports were reopened under the UN-backed grain deal, allowing Russia to inspect ships for arms. But Moscow quit a year later and reimposed the blockade, saying its demands for better terms for its own food and fertiliser exports were being ignored.

Ukraine last month announced a “humanitarian corridor” in the Black Sea, initially using it to release ships that do not carry grain and were not covered by the grain deal, which had been trapped in its ports for more than a year.

Five vessels have left so far using the corridor, which hugs the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts.

Kyiv has also kept up exports from river ports on the Danube while its Black Sea ports were shut. Russia has launched frequent drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian grain export infrastructure in what Ukraine and its allies call attacks with no military justification. Moscow says it hits military targets.

Odesa’s three seaports, including Chornomorsk, shipped tens of millions of tons of grain during Russia’s invasion under the U.N.-brokered deal before Russia abandoned it.

Related Galleries:

Palau-flagged bulk carrier Aroyat is pictured at sea, in this picture obtained from social media and released on September 22, 2023. Oleksandr Kubrakov via X/via REUTERS

Palau-flagged bulk carrier Aroyat loaded with grain, leaves the sea port of Chornomorsk, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near Odesa, Ukraine September 22, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer

Palau-flagged cargo ship Resilient Africa, carrying Ukraine grain, transits Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey September 22, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik

Palau-flagged cargo ship Resilient Africa, carrying Ukraine grain, transits Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey September 22, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik

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AstraZeneca and Daiichi“s breast cancer drug meets goal in study


2023-09-22T07:47:35Z

FILE PHOTO-Test tubes are seen in front of a displayed AstraZeneca logo in this illustration taken, May 21, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

AstraZeneca (AZN.L) said on Friday its experimental precision drug had slowed the progression of breast cancer in a late-stage trial, a boost for the company after its shares fell in July on results from a separate trial of the same drug for lung cancer.

The drug, datopotamab deruxtecan, which AstraZeneca is jointly developing with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T), is being closely watched by analysts and investors in part due to the promise of the class of drugs to which it belongs, known as antibody drug conjugates (ADC).

ADCs consist of tumour-seeking monoclonal antibodies that are combined with a cell-killing chemotherapy payload.

The trial data released on Friday showed the drug, abbreviated as Dato-DXd, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in slowing the progression of breast cancer in trial participants, compared to patients who received other treatments such as chemotherapy.

The British drugmaker also said that there was a “trend in improvement” in the other main goal of the study, “overall survival” of patients, but the data on that was not mature so the trial would continue as planned.

AstraZeneca shares rose 1.7% in early trading, to their highest level in more than five weeks.

AstraZeneca is simultaneously developing the drug for use in lung cancer, and while data from a separate late-stage trial released in July was positive, the market was concerned that the drug’s benefits for use in lung cancer treatment might not as pronounced as hoped, leading shares to fall more than 6% on the day the data was released.

The company has not said when it will release detailed data from the lung cancer study.

Analysts see the positive results from the breast cancer trial as good for AstraZeneca, but the market is more focused on the results of a trial called MARIPOSA by Johnson & Johnson. It compares AstraZeneca’s blockbuster cancer drug Tagrisso alone with its own drug, Rybrevant, in combination with another medicine.

Those results are expected later this year.

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Tropical Storm Warning Issued for US East Coast


A storm churning in waters off the eastern U.S. has increased to tropical storm strength and is forecast to reach the North Carolina coast Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm was off the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina late Thursday with top sustained winds of 65 kph. A storm surge watch was in effect, with surges between 91 centimeters and 1.5 meters forecast for parts of North Carolina, the center reported.

As of Thursday night, the storm was located about 570 kilometers southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and about 635 kilometers south Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and moving north at 6 kph, the center said.

Though the system had reached tropical storm strength, it was yet to be given a name and the center was still referring to it as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 on Thursday night. The hurricane center defines a potential tropical cyclone as a disturbance posing a threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours.

Meteorologist Maria Torres, a public affairs officer with the Miami-based center, said people along the Atlantic coast need to watch the storm’s progress, gather supplies and make preparations for its arrival.

“This will bring some tropical storm force winds and storm surge along with the high winds to the East Coast through the weekend, mainly from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic states,” she told The Associated Press.

The tropical storm warning was in effect from Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware. It also includes the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island and Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Storm surge warnings were in effect for areas throughout the region, the hurricane center said.

Virginia emergency management officials warned of heavy rain, high winds and flooding in the next few days.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management said on social media Thursday that officials are coordinating with local weather service offices to watch the system developing off the coast. Officials called on residents to prepare for the storm and impacts on the region throughout the weekend.

North Carolina Emergency Management warned large swells from distant Hurricane Nigel also would reach the state’s coast on Thursday, boosting the rip current risk. The combination of those swells and the low-pressure system could mean additional ocean overwash, beach erosion and coastal flooding.

The hurricane center said storm surge between 0.6 and 1.2 meters was expected.

A storm surge warning was in effect from Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Nigel was headed toward cooler North Atlantic waters as a Category 1 storm. The hurricane center said Nigel was expected to become “extratropical” and was centered about 1,125 kilometers northwest of the Azores.

Nigel’s maximum sustained winds reported in the center’s most recent update late Thursday were 120 kph. There were no coastal watches or warnings associated with Nigel.

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Hawaii Residents Bracing to Return to Devastated Properties in Burn Zone


Soon after one of Maui’s Japanese Buddhist temples, the Lahaina Hongwanji Mission, burned in the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century, its resident minister was desperate to go back and see what remained.

Six weeks later, he’s more hesitant.

“Now I feel like I have to have mental preparation to go there,” the Rev. Ai Hironaka said. “I’m kind of afraid.”

Hironaka and other Lahaina residents are grappling with a range of emotions as Maui authorities plan next week to begin allowing some on supervised visits back into the areas devastated by the Aug. 8 fire, which killed at least 97 people and demolished thousands of buildings.

Lana Vierra is bracing to see the ruins of the home where she raised five children, a house that started with three bedrooms in 1991 and was expanded to six to accommodate her extended family as the cost of living in Hawaii soared.

She’s been telling her family to be ready when it’s their turn, so that they can all visit together.

“We’re preparing our minds for that,” she said. “I don’t know know if our hearts are prepared for that.”

Authorities have divided the burned area into 17 zones and dozens of sub-zones. Residents or property owners of the first to be cleared for reentry — known as Zone 1C, along Kaniau Road in the north part of Lahaina — will be allowed to return Monday and Tuesday on supervised visits.

Government agencies including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Maui County’s highways division are involved in clearing the zones for reentry by, among other things, removing any hazardous materials, checking buildings for structural safety and ensuring safe road access.

Those returning will be provided water, shade, washing stations, portable toilets, medical and mental health care, and transportation assistance if needed, said Darryl Oliveira, Maui Emergency Management Agency interim administrator.

Authorities are also offering personal protective equipment, including respirator masks and coveralls. Officials have warned that ash could contain asbestos, lead, arsenic or other toxins. There are other hazards, too, Oliveira said, such as burned out cars along roads and chunks of metal or concrete in the ruins.

“We really want to help guide them, provide them the support, but also provide them the privacy, that space and quiet, so they can get the closure they’re looking for,” Oliveira said in a video message Thursday.

Some people might want to sift through the ashes for any belongings or mementos that survived, but officials are urging them not to, for fear of stirring up toxic dust that could endanger them or their neighbors downwind. Other residents said they didn’t immediately have plans to return to the properties because jobs or the hassle of obtaining a pass to reenter the burn zone would keep them away.

Melody Lukela-Singh plans to take a hazardous materials course before visiting the Front Street property where the house she lived in with about a dozen relatives once stood.

“I’m hoping to learn what we’re going to encounter as far as exposure to things we know nothing about,” she said. “The winds pick up and it’s going to be all in the air. It’s going be a while before all of that is gone.”

Hironaka reflected on how his feelings toward reentry have changed as the weeks have passed — and as the magnitude of losing the temple, along with his home on the temple grounds, has set in.

“After a week, I feel like I still have energy, like a car with full tank of gas,” Hironaka said. “After I use all the gasoline, I don’t know where to fill it up, what to fill it up. No gas. I feel like I’m pushing the empty-gas car only by myself. Pushing from the back.”

He, his wife, their four children and their French bulldog piled into his Honda Civic to escape the flames. As they drove off, he said, he imagined the temple as protecting their home.

In a phone interview, he said he initially intended not to cry until he could return to thank the temple and apologize to the Buddha statue that had been at its main altar. But he became emotional and sobbed as he spoke, saying, “The temple building, I was supposed to protect as resident minister.”

He has found solace, he said, in Buddhism’s teachings of wisdom and compassion, that Buddha has no judgment and allows him to feel whatever he feels in the moment.

Hironaka said he often sees a photo taken by The Maui News and distributed worldwide by The Associated Press that shows the temple burning alongside Waiola Church next door. He considered the temple, built in 1933, to be like a family member, he said.

“That’s the end-of-life picture to me,” he said.

Lahaina’s two other Japanese Buddhist temples also burned down.

Jarom Ayoso is eager to get back to the property where he and his wife rented a house for nearly 15 years. His son was able to get in the day after the fire and took video of the destruction.

“I want closure for my end,” he said. “The only way I going get that is if I go and see it.”

Ayoso wants to see what’s left of the vehicles he lovingly rebuilt, including his 1986 GMC Sierra pickup truck. There were also motors he built on the property, including one that cost more than $13,000. He was just about to install it, he said, and “poof — gone.”

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Britain says may clear restructured Microsoft-Activision deal


2023-09-22T07:08:49Z

Microsoft logo is seen on a smartphone placed on displayed Activision Blizzard’s games characters in this illustration taken January 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Microsoft’s (MSFT.O) restructured acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O) “opens the door” to the deal being cleared, Britain’s antitrust regulator said on Friday.

Microsoft announced the biggest gaming deal in history in early 2022, but the $69 billion acquisition was blocked in April by Britain’s competition regulator, which was concerned the U.S. computing giant would gain too much control of the nascent cloud gaming market.

In August the “Call of Duty” maker agreed to sell its streaming rights to Ubisoft Entertainment (UBIP.PA).

The Ubisoft divestment “substantially addresses previous concerns,” the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said in a statement.

“While the CMA has identified limited residual concerns with the new deal, Microsoft has put forward remedies which the CMA has provisionally concluded should address these issues,” the regulator said.

Microsoft said it was “encouraged by this positive development in the CMA’s review process”.

“We presented solutions that we believe fully address the CMA’s remaining concerns related to cloud game streaming, and we will continue to work toward earning approval to close prior to the October 18 deadline,” Microsoft vice chair and president Brad Smith said.

The CMA said there were “residual concerns” that certain provisions in the Ubisoft deal could be circumvented, terminated or not enforced.

Microsoft has offered remedies to ensure that the terms of the sale are enforceable by the regulator.

The CMA is now consulting on the remedies before making a final decision.

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PM Pashinyan notes case in which Karabakh Armenians might move to Armenia


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The transfer of our compatriots from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia may take place in the conditions when it is recorded that it is impossible for our compatriots to stay in Nagorno-Karabakh; that is, if this situation continues. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated this at Friday’s Cabinet meeting of the Armenian government.

“We assess that this impossibility exists at the moment. If the situation does not improve, that situation will be on the agenda of all of us. But also, I want to inform that back on September 19, that is, the day of the start of [Azerbaijan’s military] operations [in Nagorno-Karabakh], I gave an instruction to Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Khachatryan to discuss with his government colleagues how, where, and with what we will assist our compatriots in the event of a possible flow of people to Armenia. More than 40,000 places have been prepared; it’s about places to stay, as well as simultaneously in terms of health care, food. This is an agreed position with Nagorno-Karabakh colleagues. Our Plan A is not to de-Armenianize Nagorno-Karabakh. We must do everything in our actions so that our compatriots have the chance to live in their homes without fear, with dignity,” Pashinyan said.

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Jeyhun Bayramov meets with Joe Biden


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Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov attended a reception organized by US President Joe Biden within the framework of the high-level week of the 78th session of the UN General Assembly.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan informed on its page in X that within the framework of the reception, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister met with US President Joe Biden.

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Biden’s Call to Expand UNSC Membership Likely to Go Unheeded


U.S. President Joe Biden has again called for an increase in the number of permanent and non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

In his speech on Tuesday to the U.N. General Assembly, Biden said the U.S. has “undertaken serious consultation with many member states. And we’ll continue to do our part to push more reform efforts forward, look for points of common ground, and make progress in the year ahead.”

“We need to be able to break the gridlock that too often stymies progress and blocks consensus on the council,” he said. “We need more voices and more perspectives at the table.”

Confrontations between the U.S., China and Russia often paralyze the Security Council. The three, along with Britain and France have permanent seats on the council, and any one of them can veto a resolution. There are 10 non-permanent members elected by the United Nations General Assembly for two-year terms, with five replaced each year. The non-permanent members lack veto power.

Biden called for the council’s expansion last year when he addressed the General Assembly.

“The current increased competition makes countries even more sensitive to the zero-sum nature of those decisions … and there’s so little solidarity and trust right now,” said Stewart Patrick, senior fellow and director of the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Patrick told VOA Mandarin in a phone interview that the deepening of frictions between the U.S. and China and between the U.S. and Russia have increasingly intruded on the ability of the council to address other matters such as climate change.

But Patrick said there is “renewed momentum” on “the desire to reform the composition and perhaps the rules of the U.N. Security Council to make it more representative, but also more effective.”

The declaration that came out after the BRICS summit in August included a line that supported calls for Brazil, India and South Africa to play “a greater role in international affairs, in particular in the United Nations, including its Security Council.” All three nations belong to the bloc, which also includes China and Russia.

Maya Ungar, U.N. project officer at the International Crisis Group who monitors the Security Council, told VOA Mandarin the BRICS declaration is “quite significant because it’s the first time that [the bloc] has put out a statement bringing that much support …”

Other groups of U.N. member states are advocating for particular types of reforms. The G4 group of Brazil, Germany, India and Japan have been campaigning for permanent council seats for years.

Patrick said the G4 countries have regional rivals that object to their permanent memberships. Pakistan opposes India, South Korea and Indonesia have objections to Japan, and Argentina and Mexico have concerns about Brazil. 

“Each of the aspirants has regional rivals and they have their own coalition called the Uniting for Consensus Coalition,” he said. “And what they are attempting to do is to offer an alternative plan for council expansion.”

In addition, the 54-member Africa Group of U.N. members wants Security Council representation.

Algeria’s foreign minister, Mourad Medelci, who spoke during the annual meeting of heads of state and governments at the U.N., said the council’s “membership must be expanded to include new permanent and non-permanent members of the developing world, particularly Africa, the cradle of civilization.”

Anjali Dayal, associate professor of international politics at Fordham University, told VOA Mandarin, “Everybody agrees that the Security Council needs to be reformed, but nobody agrees on how it should be reformed.”

Besides the geopolitical hurdles, Patrick said, “the procedural hurdles for actually extending the U.N. Security Council are quite daunting because it would require, even if it was only about elected members, it would require the approval of two-thirds of the members of the General Assembly and all of the P5 to get the required charter amendments. And then each of those approvals would have to be backed by domestic legislation in the relevant countries.” P5 refers to the Security Council’s permanent five members.

Ungar said that while Biden expressed support for Security Council expansion, he did not make specific suggestions.

“The process of choosing who would join will be almost impossible to manage,” Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA in an email. “Enlarging the UNSC will make it more unwieldy and even less able than it is now to reach decisions.”

A survey of major strategists around the world released in July by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, found that 64% of respondents believed that the Security Council would not add any new permanent members in the next 10 years. The survey found that if a new country were to be added it would most likely be India, Japan or Brazil.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, said last month that China is the only permanent member in the U.N. Security Council that opposes India joining the Council as a permanent member, according to The Economic Times of India.

Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation, told VOA Mandarin in an email, “China is the only country on the UNSC that as a permanent member refuses to support India’s permanent membership using procedural issues.”

China has insisted for many years that it supports necessary and reasonable reforms, but it advocates reaching the broadest consensus.

Zhang Jun, China’s permanent representative to the U.N., said in 2021 that all parties still have major differences, so they should not act hastily. He said member states should seek a package solution that takes into account the interests and concerns of all parties and reach the broadest political consensus.

“It is very, very difficult to imagine the Chinese approving a permanent membership in particular for either Japan or India given that they are regional rivals. And in the case of India, they have significant territorial disputes in particular,” Patrick said.

“China’s stated position is to favor adding developing countries to the UNSC, but it has also said reforms must be made slowly and carefully,” Abrams said. “In reality, I do not think China wants to see the present makeup changed.” 

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