President Joe Biden is beating his Republican rival, Donald Trump, in multiple polls as the presidential election campaign begins in earnest.
A rematch between Trump, the former president, and Biden has been all but confirmed in the general election after former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley last week dropped out of the GOP primary, leaving Trump without opponents.
Since then, a series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump in the November vote. But with eight months to go, and the polls so tight, this could change and a number of polls have also indicated that Trump will win the election.
Newsweek contacted Biden’s campaign and a representative for Trump by email to comment on this story.
Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and former president Donald Trump are both campaigning in Georgia today ahead of the Primary election…
Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and former president Donald Trump are both campaigning in Georgia today ahead of the Primary election voting taking place on Tuesday. The Democrat is outperforming the Republican in a series of polls. Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images
One poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation showed Biden leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent. There were 1,072 registered voters surveyed between February 20 and 28 in this poll.
Another poll of 1,350 registered voters by Emerson College put Biden ahead of the Republican by two percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent. The survey was carried out between March 5 and 6.
Of the 6,334 registered voters surveyed by Morning Consult between March 1 and 5, 44 percent would vote for Biden and 43 percent for Trump.
And Biden would beat Trump 43 percent to 42 percent, according to TIPP polling.
Writing in his Substack blog Hopium Chronicles, founder of the Democrat supporting New Democrat Network think tank, Simon Rosenberg said he was “optimistic” about the Democrats winning the election.
“A central reason I’ve been so optimistic about us winning in November is that I always believed that when it became clear to voters that it was Biden vs Trump, and the Biden campaign began in earnest, a big chunk of our wandering coalition would come home,” he said. “Biden would then gain 3-4 points and open up a small but meaningful lead in national polling. It’s possible that is what we we’re seeing now.”
However, in other polls, Trump is projected to beat Biden. A March 2 poll of 1,115 likely voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies gave Trump a four-point lead over Biden, 43 percent to 39 percent.
A March 3 to 5 poll of 1,450 registered voters by YouGov forecasts Trump to garner 44 percent of the vote share to Biden’s 42 percent.
Speaking to Newsweek, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, said: “I wouldn’t invest too much in any given poll or even a handful of polls. Both campaigns know this race is just about tied right now, will likely remain that way for a while, and are executing their strategies accordingly.”
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.