Stocks muted by Middle East conflict, central bank meetings

Asian share markets were mixed on Monday as Israel’s push into Gaza stirred fears of a wider conflict ahead of central bank meetings in the United States, Britain and Japan, the latter of which might see a policy tightening.

The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald’s, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Results so far have been underwhelming, contributing to the S&P 500’s retreat into correction territory (.SPX).

“The price action is bad as SPX could not defend a key 4,200 level; risk is it heads to the 200-week moving average of 3,941 before a trading rally,” BofA analysts said.

S&P 500 futures did edge up 0.4% on Monday to 4,153.5, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.1% and FTSE futures gained 0.2%.

Risk appetite was dulled by Israel’s push to surround Gaza’s main city in a self-declared “second phase” of a three-week war against Iranian-backed Hamas militants.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.04%, having hit a one-year low last week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) firmed 0.6%.

China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) shares fell as much as 23% in the morning session, though later trimmed losses to 5% after Hong Kong’s High Court adjourned a request to wind up the embattled property developer.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.95% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday.

Many analysts expect the central bank will lift its inflation forecast to 2.0%, but are unsure whether it will finally abandon YCC in the face of market pressure on bonds.

“Remaining uncertainty about the wage outlook, combined with stresses in global bond markets could prompt the BOJ to err on the side of caution, making our view that YCC will be scrapped a very close call,” said analysts at Barclays.

“The BOJ could still opt to revise policy but less drastically, perhaps by raising the ceiling for 10-year yields as it did in July.”

Yields are already at their highest since 2013 at 0.89% and abandoning YCC altogether would likely add to pressure on global markets already bruised by a vicious sell-off in U.S. Treasuries.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries stood at 4.8751% on Monday, having climbed 30 basis points so far this month and touched 16-year peaks at 5.021%.

Sentiment will be tested further this week when Treasury announces its refunding plans, with more increases likely. NatWest Markets expects $885 billion of marketable borrowing in the fourth quarter and $700 billion in the following quarter.

The sharp rise in market borrowing costs has convinced analysts the Federal Reserve will stand pat at its policy meeting this week, with futures implying a full chance of rates staying at 5.25-5.5%.

The market has also priced in 165 basis points of easing for 2024, starting around mid-year.

“The Fed appears to have coalesced around the view that the recent tightening in financial conditions led by higher long-term interest rates has made another hike unnecessary,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, who estimated the rise in yields was the equivalent of 100 basis points of rate increases.

“The story of the year so far has been that economic reacceleration has not prevented further labor market rebalancing and progress in the inflation fight,” they added. “We expect this to continue in coming months.”

Job figures due Friday are forecast to show U.S. payrolls rose a still solid 188,000 in October, after September’s blockbuster gain, but annual growth in average earnings is still seen slowing to 4.0% from 4.2%.

The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether.

Oddly the ascent of U.S. yields has not helped the dollar any higher recently.

“Likewise, the fall in global equity markets and the ongoing uncertainty around the Hamas-Israel conflict has not done much to drive the dollar higher against risk-sensitive currencies,” Capital Economics analysts wrote in a note.

“This reinforces our sense that a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook in the U.S. is by now largely discounted in the dollar.”

The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies at 106.56 , having bounced between 105.350 and 106.890 last week. It was flat on the yen to 149.60 , and short of last week’s top of 150.78.

The euro idled at $1.0563 , and is almost unchanged on the month so far.

In commodity markets, gold was steady at $1,998 an ounce .

Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.

Brent lost $1 to $89.45 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell $1.13 to $84.41.