War Notes: Hamas miscalculated

NewsNation’s Leland Vittert provides expert analysis and insight into the Israel-Hamas war in the Oct. 11 edition of War Notes.

(NewsNation) — At least on its face, it appears that Hamas miscalculated. They expected the hostages to paralyze an Israeli response, but it didn’t. It appears Hamas’s brutality and tactics not only stunned Israelis but the entire world. If you listen closely to Israeli leaders, there is very little discussion about hostage rescue or return, and instead, complete focus on the destruction of Hamas.

We need to be clear-eyed about the possibility of hostage rescue. Hamas has had years to plan for this —how to split up the hostages, how to move them undetected in tunnels, what bunkers to keep them in and teams that can be totally off the grid to guard them. The list is literally endless of their advantages. The idea that even if ordered, Delta or DEVGRU could drop in and pluck them out is not realistic. Remember, even against ISIS, we weren’t able to rescue most of the Americans. This is about 100 times harder. As we showed last night, Gaza is an armed camp two times the size of Washington, D.C. It will be impossible for a special operations team to get in or out, much less isolate a small part of the city, to stage an operation.

The question for those in the Biden administration will be if they will change their view or messaging against Iran once the beheading and execution videos start coming out.

I would caution against equating war in the north with Gaza. If things kick off with Hezbollah, we will know. It won’t be a question. Hezbollah’s arsenal of 150,000 rockets is very different than Hamas’. These are precision-guided missiles that can reach all of Israel. They can take out critical infrastructure (airports, power stations, water plants, fuel depots and military bases) that would totally change the ballgame and is why the USS Ford battle group is in position. From Iran’s perspective, forcing Israel to prepare for a two-front war is almost better than being in a two-front war. Plus, Iran maintains its insurance policy.

President Biden should rightfully be called out for saying very little about the hostages and for making no promise to hold Iran responsible for their safety — even if you buy into the administration’s ridiculous position on Iran’s “involvement” in the attacks. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan admits Hamas works for Iran; therefore, it is unclear why putting pressure on Iran is a path the administration won’t even explore.

Furthermore, where is the public pressure on Qatar? Hamas’ leader lives in a luxury villa supplied and protected by the Qataris. Why is there no naming and shaming? Why are there no demands of extradition for a man so clearly responsible for the deaths of Americans?

President Biden’s speech Tuesday included a line about pressuring Congress to pass an aid package not for Israel but for all of our partners. That means they are going to tie Ukrainian and Israeli aid together. As pointed out in the previous note, there are points toward the political team at the White House here; this is a shrewd move. However, it’s important to remember that Congress doesn’t need to pass anything for Israel; the War Powers Act gives Biden vast latitude for 30 days.

As the focus shifts to “What about the civilians in Gaza?” our focus should shift to “What about Hamas and Iran?” Hamas controls Gaza, and it thinks slaughtering Israeli civilians and eradicating Israel is more important than the lives and well-being of those in Gaza — same for their backers in Iran. It’s widely reported that Hamas is forcing civilians of Gaza to remain in areas where Hamas fighters will use them as human shields. For all the talk about “international law,” we should point out that Hamas is actively using its own women and children as human shields — that alone is a war crime, and Iran could put an end to it.

Also, what about Egypt and the other Arab countries that could provide safe passage and asylum to Gaza civilians?

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of NewsNation.