Argentina election vote count underway as run-off looks likely

Argentina’sgeneral election vote was being counted on Sunday evening, with early signals suggesting the under-fire Peronist ruling coalition was performing better than expected, while all eyes remained on far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei.

Argentines flocked to the polls on Sunday to vote in a tense national election where wild-haired outsider Milei has hogged the limelight amid the country’s worst economic crisis in two decades and rising anger with the traditional elite.

Around the South American country voters cast their ballots, with three main candidates likely to split the vote: frontrunner libertarian economist Milei, centrist Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa and conservative Patricia Bullrich.

While no official data has been released, nor formal exit polls, local news channels cited leaked early data to say Massa was outperforming pre-election polls and in first place, ahead of Milei and then Bullrich. Reuters could not verify that.

The mood at Massa’s election bunker, however, was jubilant. Pre-election polls had shown him in second place behind Milei.

Officials and sources from all three of the main candidates indicated they expected a run-off, though all said their candidate had a chance to make it. To win outright, a candidate needs over 45% of the vote or 40% and a 10-point lead.

Any run-off would be held on Nov. 19.

With the three top candidates offering starkly different visions, the ballot is likely to roil financial markets, set a new political and social path for the nation and impact its ties with trade partners including China and Brazil. Argentina is a major grains exporter with huge lithium and shale gas reserves.

“We have never had so much polarization,” said 72-year-old pensioner Silvia Monto as she voted in Buenos Aires on Sunday.

Milei, pledging to “chainsaw” the economic and political status quo, has seen angry voters flock to his tear-it-all-down message, fed up with annual inflation at close to 140% and poverty affecting over two-fifths of the population.

“Milei is the incarnation of all society’s demands,” said Juan Luis Gonzalez, who wrote a biography of him titled “El Loco”, meaning the crazy one. He thinks Milei, a brash former TV pundit likened to Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, will win despite being an “unstable” character who could damage Argentina further.

“I see a very worrying situation,” Gonzalez said.

Election authorities said turnout was around 74%, up from the August primaries, but considerably lower than the 81% participation at the last general election four years ago.

Whoever of the trio emerges victorious will have to deal with an economy on life support: central bank reserves are empty, recession is expected after a major drought, and a $44 billion program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is wobbling.

Milei’s recipe of shock therapy includes pledges to dollarize the economy, shut the central bank, slash the size of government and privatize state entities. He has criticized China, favors looser gun laws, opposes abortion and is anti-feminist.

“He is the only one who understands the situation in the country and understands how to save it,” said Buenos Aires student Nicolas Mercado, 22.

Susana Munoz, 62, a retiree, meanwhile said the rise of Milei was a reflection of upheaval globally, where high inflation, conflict and migration was stoking divisions.

“The world is complicated and we aren’t immune to that,” she said as she voted on Sunday. “The right is advancing everywhere and that we have characters like Milei is unthinkable.”

Massa, current economy chief, is in the running despite overseeing inflation hitting triple digits for the first time since 1991. He has said he will cut the fiscal deficit, stick with the peso and defend the Peronist social welfare safety net.

“Peronism … is the only space that offers the possibility that the poorest of us can have basic things at our fingertips,” said bricklayer Carlos Gutierrez, 61. “I trust that Massa will get it right.”

Bullrich, a former security minister who is popular in business circles, has seen her support diluted by the unexpected emergence of Milei. Pollsters see her as the most likely of the top three runners to miss out on a second round.

Many voters were tired after many years of economic malaise.

“I vote out of obligation, but with little desire,” said Silvana Dezilio, 37, a housewife in Buenos Aires province.

“All governments promise things and end up sinking us a little more. It seems unbelievable, but we are getting worse and worse. We read that other countries have overcome the problems that for us are getting worse every day,” she said.

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