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A top official at the US Defense Intelligence Agency has said there’s a “realistic possibility” of a full breakthrough by 2024, but there are a few caveats.
The post EXPLAINED: The US Intelligence Counteroffensive Assessment That Has Everyone Talking first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
Last week, Miami’s America TeVe newspaper published testimonies from two teenagers who said they had been tricked into working alongside the Russian army on construction sites in Ukraine.
The post Cuba Arrests 17 Over ‘Trafficking’ for Russia’s War in Ukraine first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
The acclaimed actor and writer Stephen Fry came to Kyiv and met with his fellow comedian, now president. Later he referred to the Ukrainian president as his new best friend.
The post ‘My New Bestie’ – British Actor and Writer Stephen Fry Meets Zelensky first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
The stores in Stepanakert are still open, but the shelves are empty. Food, medicine, toiletries, fuel — everything is in short supply in the de facto capital of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as the territory of Azerbaijan.
The disputed region is inhabited mainly by Armenians. Goods are supplied via one access road, the Lachin Corridor, which connects to Armenia but has been blocked by Azerbaijan since December 2022, cutting the region off from the outside world.
The International Red Cross and Russian troops, who were monitoring a ceasefire agreement negotiated between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, had until recently been able to deliver aid. But, in June, after a skirmish between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers on the common border, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev tightened the blockade, leaving the enclave’s inhabitants on their own.
According to Armenian sources, about 120,000 people have been forced to endure the situation, though Azerbaijani officials say the number is significantly lower. In any case, the supply shortage in Nagorno-Karabakh has become so dire that Henrikh Mkhitaryan, the world-famous Armenian footballer and UNICEF ambassador, tweeted an urgent appeal in early August, calling for the blockade to be lifted immediately on humanitarian grounds.
A rally calling for the unblocking of the Lachin corridor and ending of the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh in Freedom Square, YerevanImage: Alexander Patrin/TASS/dpa/picture alliance/dpa
Armenia and Azerbaijan have actually been negotiating an end to the conflict for months. A breakthrough in the negotiations would be a huge step forward in a dispute that has been going on for 30 years. The first war between the two states broke out in the early 1990s, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there have since been repeated incidents along the still undefined border.
As the Nagorno-Karabakh region lies entirely within Azerbaijan’s borders, the latter invokes the principle of territorial integrity in its claim to the area. However, it is inhabited by an Armenian majority, which is why Armenia insists on self-determination for its population. Parts of Nagorno-Karabakh already declared themselves independent in 1991, though no state in the world recognizes this. Not even Armenia — presumably to avoid making peace negotiations with Azerbaijan impossible from the outset.
In 2020, a second war broke out between the two states over the region, and a subsequent ceasefire brokered by Moscow helped Azerbaijan regain control of parts of the disputed territory. Despite Russian troops monitoring the ceasefire, deadly clashes continue to occur. Some 35,000 people are estimated to have died since the conflict began, with hundreds of thousands forced to flee.
Russian peacekeepers guard the Lachin corridor, the Armenian-populated breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region’s only land link with ArmeniaImage: Tofik Babayev/AFP/Getty Images
Representatives from Baku and Yerevan have already met several times over the past two years in Brussels, Washington, and Moscow, with the aim of transforming the fragile ceasefire agreement into a lasting peace treaty.
There have been six negotiations under European Union mediation alone. In May, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan surprised the country with the domestically controversial announcement that he would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan as long as the Armenians there received comprehensive rights and security guarantees as a protected minority.
However, the self-proclaimed government of Nagorno-Karabakh, made up of ethnic Armenians and calling the region the “Republic of Arzakh” since 2017, has so far refused integration into Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani President Aliyev doesn’t seem interested in this solution, either. He has repeatedly called for the government and parliament of the “Republic of Arzakh” to be dissolved and for Armenians there to be integrated into Azerbaijan as “normal, loyal citizens.” This was a condition upon which Aliyev recently offered to supply the trapped Armenians with aid — something they promptly rejected as a “poisoned” offer.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan surprised many with a peace offer earlier this yearImage: Alexander Patrin/TASS/dpa/picture alliance/dpa
The negotiations are further complicated by the interests of neighboring countries, particularly Turkey and Russia. Ankara more or less openly supports Azerbaijan. Given the ethnic and cultural similarities between the Turkic-speaking countries, each subscribes to a notion of “one nation, two states.” Turkey is also an important customer of Azerbaijani natural gas.
Russia, on the other hand, has a slightly more complicated position because it maintains ties with both former Soviet republics, though more intensively with Armenia, as it too has a predominantly Christian Orthodox population. Moscow’s preference is evidenced by the fact that while it supplies both parties to the conflict with Russian weapons, only Yerevan gets a preferential price. In addition, Russia maintains a military base in Armenia’s second largest city, Gyumri.
Still, in the ceasefire agreement most recently negotiated by Moscow, Azerbaijan regained control over large areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the Russian army, which is supposed to be a “peacekeeping force,” has been very restrained in the skirmishes that have repeatedly flared up along the border.
Moscow apparently wants to keep both countries dependent, but it has also had to significantly reduce its troop presence in the Caucasus due to its war against Ukraine.
While international diplomats say that a viable agreement could be reached by fall, there are still significant obstacles to overcome.
This article was originally written in German.
The post Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: Could it escalate again? – DW – 08/13/2023 first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
On August 29, President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron made a phone call to President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, News.Az reports.
During the telephone conversation, the situation in the region, the issue of the opening of the Aghdam-Khankendi and Lachin-Khankendi roads were discussed.
The head of state said that Armenia and the puppet regime, which it created and supports in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, are deliberately creating artificial obstacles for the use of the Aghdam-Khankendi road, and are exploiting this for political manipulation.
The President of Azerbaijan noted that Armenia and the puppet regime refused the initial agreement reached on the transportation of goods via the Aghdam-Khankendi road through the mediation of the International Committee of the Red Cross. The Armenian leadership also brought goods, which it claimed were for humanitarian purposes, in the direction of the state border without the Azerbaijani side’s agreement, and the purpose here is political speculation.
The head of state underlined that Azerbaijan invited representatives of the Armenian population of Karabakh to the capital Baku and other cities of Azerbaijan to discuss reintegration issues, but they refused and purposefully made allegations about the tense humanitarian situation. President Ilham Aliyev noted that following the opening of the Aghdam-Khankendi road, the Lachin-Khankendi road can be used by observing the customs and border regime rules of Azerbaijan.
President Ilham Aliyev also pointed out that a car convoy loaded with food cargo has today left to that area via the Azerbaijan Red Crescent Society.
President Emmanuel Macron said that France is ready to contribute to the stabilization of the situation and the elimination of the current tension, and proposed to continue contacts between the relevant authorities of France and Azerbaijan.
The post France’s Macron makes phone call to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
The post Widodo Calls for Easing of Tensions in Southeast Asia first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
Cuban authorities said they had arrested 17 people on charges related to a ring of human traffickers that allegedly lured young Cuban men to serve in the Russian military amid the Ukraine conflict.
Cuba earlier this week revealed authorities were working to “neutralize and dismantle” the network, which it said operated both on Cuban soil and in Russia.
“As a result of the investigations, 17 people have been arrested so far, among them the internal organizer of these activities,” Cesar Rodriguez, a colonel with Cuba´s interior ministry, said late on Thursday on a TV program.
Rodriguez did not name any of those accused of participating in the ring, but said the group´s leader relied on two people residing on the island to recruit Cubans to fight for hire on behalf of Russia in Ukraine.
Prosecutor Jose Luis Reyes said those involved in the scandal could be punished with up to 30 years in prison, a life sentence or the death penalty, depending on the severity and type of crimes, which range from human trafficking, fighting as a mercenary and hostile action against a foreign state.
Russia, which has strong political ties with communist-run Cuba, has long been an important destination for Cuban migrants seeking to escape economic stagnation at home.
Russian President Vladimir Putin last year signed a decree allowing foreigners signing up for service in the Russian army to receive citizenship via a fast-track procedure.
Cuba says it has no part in the war in Ukraine, and that it rejects the use of its citizens as mercenaries.
The post Cuba arrests 17 for trafficking young men to fight for Russia in Ukraine first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
The Toronto International Film Festival opened on Thursday with “The Boy and the Heron” by famed Japanese director Hayao Miyazaki, the first time an animated feature has taken the coveted spot.
Although there was a dearth of star power on the red carpet due to the Hollywood actors strike, festival goers can look forward to some 50 films over 11 days, including Craig Gillespie’s “Dumb Money,” “Lee” which stars Kate Winslet and Taika Waititi’s “Next Goal Wins”.
The festival will also include directorial debuts for Patricia Arquette with “Gonzo Girl” and for Kristin Scott Thomas with “North Star”.
Studio Ghibli executive Junichi Nishioka said it was an honour for “The Boy and the Heron” to have been chosen as the opener for the festival.
“It shows that animation and live-action films don’t need to be differentiated anymore,” he said.
The film, a semi-autobiographical story of a young boy struggling with the death of his mother, is expected to Miyazaki’s swan song. The 82-year-old director, known for works such as “Spirited Away” and “My Neighbor Totoro”, did not attend the opening.
The Writers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild- American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) have been on strike since May over pay and the use of artificial intelligence.
“Gonzo Girl” stars Arquette, Camila Morrone and William Dafoe were among the few actors gaining union approval to promote their films.
“I am lucky to be here, but a lot of people are unable to attend the festival,” Morrone told Reuters, calling the strike “essential” and stressing that it was important to be resolved.
Over 150,000 actors and 65,000 writers across the United States have refused to resume shooting or promote films. The 2023 Emmy Awards have also been postponed to January next year due to the strike.
“We will get back to the bargaining table at some point. I hope it’s tomorrow but it may be a little longer than that. And once we do, I’m confident that we will be able to hold the line and make sure that whatever agreement we end up with, is fair, equitable and respectful for our members,” said Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, national executive director of SAG-AFTRA.
The post Toronto film festival kicks off with Miyazaki“s “The Boy and the Heron“, few stars first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
North Korea has launched its first operational “tactical nuclear attack submarine” and assigned it to the fleet that patrols the waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan, state media said on Friday.
Submarine No. 841 – named Hero Kim Kun Ok after a North Korean historical figure – will be one of the main “underwater offensive means of the naval force” of North Korea, leader Kim Jong Un said at the launch ceremony on Wednesday.
Analysts said the vessel appears to be a modified Soviet-era Romeo-class submarine, which North Korea acquired from China in the 1970s and began producing domestically. Its design, with 10 launch tube hatches, showed it was most likely armed with ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, analysts said.
But such weapons won’t add much value to the North’s more robust land-based nuclear forces, because its submarines may not survive as long during a war, said Vann Van Diepen, a former U.S. government weapons expert who works with the 38 North project in Washington.
“When this thing is field deployed, it’s going to be quite vulnerable to allied anti-submarine warfare,” he said. “So I think from a sort of hard-headed military standpoint this doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
At the launch ceremony, Kim said arming the navy with nuclear weapons was an urgent task and promised more underwater and surface vessels equipped with tactical nuclear weapons for the naval forces, news agency KCNA reported.
“The submarine-launching ceremony heralded the beginning of a new chapter for bolstering up the naval force of the DPRK,” KCNA said, using the initials of the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
North Korea plans to turn other existing submarines into nuclear armed vessels, and accelerate its push to eventually build nuclear-powered submarines, Kim said.
“Achieving a rapid development of our naval forces … is a priority that cannot be delayed given … the enemies’ recent aggressive moves and military acts,” the North Korean leader said in a speech, apparently referring to the United States and South Korea.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs are banned by United Nations Security Council resolutions, and the submarine launch drew condemnation from South Korea and Japan.
“North Korea’s military activity is posing graver and more imminent threat to our country’s security than before,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a briefing.
The designation as a “tactical” submarine suggests it does not carry submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) that can reach the U.S. mainland, but rather smaller, short-range SLBMs or submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM) capable of striking South Korea, Japan, or other regional targets, said Choi Il, a retired South Korean submarine captain.
The rear of the submarine’s sail – the tower that juts out of the top of the hull – was expanded and 10 vertical launch tubes, 4 large and 6 small, were installed, likely for SLBMs and SLCMs, he said.
North Korea has test-fired both SLBMs and SLCMs.
It is unclear whether North Korea has fully developed the miniaturised nuclear warheads needed for such missiles. Analysts say that perfecting smaller warheads would most likely be a key goal if the North resumes nuclear testing.
North Korea has about 20 Romeo-class submarines, which are powered by diesel-electric engines and are obsolete by modern standards, with most other countries operating them only as training vessels.
Analysts first spotted signs that at least one new submarine was being built in 2016, and in 2019 state media showed Kim inspecting a previously unreported submarine built under “his special attention” that would operate off the east coast.
State media at the time did not describe the submarine’s weapons systems or say where and when the inspection took place, but analysts said the apparent size of the new vessel indicated it was designed to carry missiles.
North Korea has a large submarine fleet but only the experimental ballistic missile submarine 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) is known to have fired a missile.
The launching ceremony comes as North Korea is set to mark the 75th anniversary of its founding day on Saturday and follows reports that Kim plans to travel to Russia this month to meet President Vladimir Putin to discuss weapons supplies to Moscow.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Thursday met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Jakarta, and asked Beijing to do more as a U.N. Security Council member to address North Korea’s nuclear threat.
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BAMAKO, Mali — Two attacks by Islamic insurgents in the restive north of Mali on Thursday killed 49 civilians and 15 government soldiers, according to a provisional death toll given by the country’s military junta.
A passenger boat near the city of Timbuktu on the Niger River and a Malian military position in Bamba further downstream in the Gao region were targeted, according to a statement from the military junta read on state television. It said the attacks have been claimed by Islamic extremist insurgent group JNIM, an umbrella coalition of armed groups aligned with al-Qaida.
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The Malian government announcement said its forces, in responding to the attacks, killed some 50 assailants.
Three days of national mourning to honor the civilians and troops killed begin Friday.
Timbuktu has been blockaded by armed groups since late August, when the Malian army deployed reinforcements to the region. The insurgents are preventing the desert city from being supplied with basic goods.
Over 30,000 residents have fled the city and a nearby region, according to an August report by the United Nations’ humanitarian agency.
The deadly attacks come as the U.N. prepares to withdraw its 17,000-strong peacekeeping mission MINUSMA from Mali at the government’s request. The pullout is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.
Mali has struggled to contain an Islamic extremist insurgency since 2012. Extremist rebels were forced from power in Mali’s northern cities the following year with the help of a French-led military operation, but they regrouped in the desert and began launching attacks on the Malian army and its allies.
The growing insecurity in Mali has increased instability in West Africa’s volatile Sahel region. Mali has had two coups since 2020 in which the military vowed to stop the jihadi violence.
The post Attacks by Islamic Insurgents in Mali Kill Dozens first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.